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MT Melsungen v SC Magdeburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MT Melsungen (Local)
Prediction 19.26%5.19fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.215%
Kelly +0.265%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.30%19.21%19.25%20.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.864.905.2524.10%20.58%20.41%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SC Magdeburg (Visit)
Prediction 72.26%1.38fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -11.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.60%72.25%72.29%74.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.271.3381.97%79.24%78.74%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.48%11.79fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.149%
Kelly +0.163%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.66%8.54%8.46%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5010.9811.0012.0010.53%9.11%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 19.26%; SC Magdeburg (Visit): 72.26%; Draw: 8.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.79%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV +1.13%E +0.215%K +0.265%G +0.003% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.44%EV -11.85%E -9.71%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -6.69%E -0.608%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 22:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV +1.13%E +0.215%K +0.265%G +0.003% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.44%EV -11.85%E -9.71%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -6.69%E -0.608%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 22:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.86%EV -2.72%E -0.540%K -0.673%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.61%EV -3.90%E -2.93%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.52%EV -15.17%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.23%EV -6.79%E -5.26%K -23.42%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +1.79%E +0.149%K +0.163%G +0.003% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.68%E -7.74%K -38.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.69%E -0.608%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -11.85%E -9.71%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -19.42%E -2.04%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -11.85%E -9.71%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -19.42%E -2.04%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -11.85%E -9.71%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -19.42%E -2.04%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:33 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:33 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.86%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:33 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.01%EV -8.24%E -6.49%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.45%E -0.213%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -5.61%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.57%EV -9.68%E -7.74%K -38.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV +1.79%E +0.149%K +0.163%G +0.003% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 18:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -9.47%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -8.24%E -6.49%K -30.50%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.69%E -0.608%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.74%EV -10.43%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.72%EV -7.51%E -5.87%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.54%EV -8.81%E -0.820%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-28 18:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -11.39%E -2.48%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.02%EV -8.96%E -7.11%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -6.69%E -0.608%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-28 18:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -11.39%E -2.48%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.02%EV -8.96%E -7.11%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -6.69%E -0.608%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -17.17%E -3.99%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 70.80%EV -10.40%E -8.39%K -43.35%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.78%EV -15.17%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 20.93%EV -20.06%E -4.83%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.60%EV -11.13%E -9.05%K -48.37%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.47%EV -13.05%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-02-28 18:48 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.65% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.50% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 8.85% | 15.3% | 2026-02-28 18:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 9.83% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 40.54% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 49.63% | 88.3% | 2026-02-28 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 9.83% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 40.54% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 49.63% | 88.3% | 2026-02-28 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 35.50% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 29.00% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 35.50% | 163.3% | 2026-02-28 18:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 20.74% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.26% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 18:10 |