Language:English
MT Melsungen v GWD Minden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MT Melsungen (Local)
Prediction 86.52%1.16fair odd
EV -5.69%
Edge -5.22%
Kelly -63.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.63%86.52%86.54%89.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.0997.09%93.93%94.34%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
GWD Minden (Visit)
Prediction 8.32%12.03fair odd
EV +24.74%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.437%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.14%8.31%8.34%11.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.729.8015.0012.50%9.33%10.20%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 5.16%19.38fair odd
EV +13.52%
Edge +0.614%
Kelly +0.644%
Growth +0.087%
assuming max odds 22.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.09%5.17%5.13%6.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0017.7218.0022.007.69%5.64%5.56%4.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 86.52%; GWD Minden (Visit): 8.32%; Draw: 5.16%. For GWD Minden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.03. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.74%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.47%EV -10.88%E -10.56%K -362.67%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +24.74%E +1.65%K +1.77%G +0.437% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV +8.36%E +0.398%K +0.418%G +0.035% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.47%EV -10.88%E -10.56%K -362.67%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +24.74%E +1.65%K +1.77%G +0.437% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV +8.36%E +0.398%K +0.418%G +0.035% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.69%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +16.42%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.207% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV +3.20%E +0.160%K +0.168%G +0.005% | 7.4% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.33%EV -10.01%E -9.63%K -250.37%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV +16.42%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.207% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-09 08:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.89%EV -8.28%E -7.82%K -138.07%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +3.95%E +0.316%K +0.343%G +0.014% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV +3.20%E +0.160%K +0.168%G +0.005% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.40%EV -8.28%E -7.82%K -138.07%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV -0.209%E -0.017%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -1.96%E -0.103%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-10 06:03 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.27%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV -0.209%E -0.017%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-09 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.45%EV -7.42%E -6.93%K -105.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -8.53%E -0.775%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-10 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.41%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -8.53%E -0.775%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -12.28%E -0.723%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.41%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -8.53%E -0.775%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -12.28%E -0.723%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.11%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -16.84%E -1.68%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -22.60%E -1.51%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-10 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.11%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -16.84%E -1.68%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -22.60%E -1.51%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-10 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.11%EV -9.15%E -8.71%K -182.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -16.84%E -1.68%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -22.60%E -1.51%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-10 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.67%EV -6.55%E -6.07%K -81.92%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.53%EV -20.17%E -2.10%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 15.75I 6.35%NM 5.81%EV -18.73%E -1.19%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-10 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 86.49%EV -10.01%E -9.63%K -250.37%G +0.000% | 9.55I 10.47%NM 9.42%EV -20.58%E -2.16%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.09%EV +13.52%E +0.614%K +0.644%G +0.087% | 11.2% | 2026-04-10 17:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -5.69%E -5.22%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -21.00%E -2.21%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -7.12%E -0.396%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-09 07:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 83.17%EV -10.01%E -9.63%K -250.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.18%EV -29.32%E -3.45%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.65%EV -32.92%E -2.53%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-09 08:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 82.63%EV -7.42%E -6.93%K -105.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -33.47%E -4.18%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -27.76%E -1.98%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-09 07:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 83.47% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.09% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.43% | 15.2% | 2026-04-09 14:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.60% | 7.56I 13.23%NM 12.40% | 6.7% | 2026-04-10 15:50 |