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MT Melsungen v Füchse Berlin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MT Melsungen (Local)
Prediction 17.22%5.81fair odd
EV +32.59%
Edge +4.23%
Kelly +4.86%
Growth +1.59%
assuming max odds 7.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.35%16.57%17.12%20.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.505.507.7022.73%18.18%18.18%12.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Füchse Berlin (Visit)
Prediction 74.61%1.34fair odd
EV -6.74%
Edge -5.39%
Kelly -26.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.03%75.84%74.64%84.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.211.211.2588.50%82.80%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.17%12.24fair odd
EV +120.56%
Edge +4.47%
Kelly +4.64%
Growth +5.59%
assuming max odds 27.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.52%7.59%8.24%8.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.1311.8827.0010.00%8.24%8.42%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 17.22%; Füchse Berlin (Visit): 74.61%; Draw: 8.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +120.56%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.35%EV +32.59%E +4.23%K +4.86%G +1.59% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.13%EV -15.69%E -13.88%K -120.69%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.52%EV +120.56%E +4.47%K +4.64%G +5.59% | 5.2% | 2026-06-04 11:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV +6.76%E +1.09%K +1.30%G +0.088% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.60%EV -12.70%E -10.86%K -74.73%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.57%EV +14.37%E +1.03%K +1.11%G +0.159% | 8.7% | 2026-06-04 17:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -0.127%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -9.72%E -8.03%K -46.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -24.23%E -5.51%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.03%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-04 16:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -24.23%E -5.51%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.03%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -1.97%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-04 16:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.12%EV -7.88%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.08%EV -8.97%E -7.36%K -40.79%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.80%EV -4.01%E -0.342%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-04 17:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -3.57%E -0.638%K -0.776%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.38%EV -8.23%E -6.69%K -35.77%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -6.06%E -0.527%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-04 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -5.29%E -0.962%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.88%EV -8.23%E -6.69%K -35.77%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-04 17:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -7.01%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.65%EV -8.23%E -6.69%K -35.77%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -10.46%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.32%EV -8.97%E -7.36%K -40.79%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-06-04 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -10.46%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.32%EV -8.97%E -7.36%K -40.79%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-06-04 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -5.29%E -0.962%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.47%E -8.72%K -52.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-04 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -13.90%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -10.47%E -8.72%K -52.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-06-04 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -13.90%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -10.47%E -8.72%K -52.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-06-04 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -13.90%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -10.47%E -8.72%K -52.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-06-04 16:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -5.29%E -0.962%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.97%EV -13.45%E -11.60%K -84.07%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.01%EV -10.14%E -0.922%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.93I 20.28%NM 17.89%EV -15.11%E -3.06%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.50%EV -10.47%E -8.72%K -52.33%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.61%EV -16.27%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-06-04 17:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -15.62%E -3.19%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.27%EV -10.47%E -8.72%K -52.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.79%EV -18.31%E -1.83%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-06-04 17:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.42% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 72.75% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 8.83% | 15.5% | 2026-06-04 17:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.22I 19.16%NM 17.92% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.08% | 6.9% | 2026-06-04 16:30 |