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HSV Hamburg v TVB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 13:00 UTC

Final: HSV Hamburg 31–26 TVB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 63.39%1.58fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -4.17%
Kelly -12.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.59%63.34%63.25%64.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.451.4871.43%69.16%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TVB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 27.01%3.70fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.12%27.01%27.06%28.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.353.353.5032.79%29.87%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.60%10.42fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -0.402%
Kelly -0.446%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.17%9.65%9.68%10.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.119.0010.0011.76%10.98%11.11%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 63.39%; TVB Stuttgart (Visit): 27.01%; Draw: 9.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 10.00, with an expected value of -4.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:09
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.17%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 07:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.32%EV -6.81%E -4.63%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.02%E -0.402%K -0.446%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.80%EV -7.45%E -5.10%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.45%EV -9.79%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.75%EV -9.78%E -1.04%K -1.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 11:30
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.82%EV -8.08%E -5.57%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -8.82%E -0.928%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.63%EV -8.08%E -5.57%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -4.02%E -0.402%K -0.446%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 01:00
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.88%EV -8.08%E -5.57%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.50%EV -7.86%E -0.818%K -0.914%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 09:14
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.88%EV -8.08%E -5.57%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.50%EV -7.86%E -0.818%K -0.914%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 09:11
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.15%EV -8.71%E -6.05%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 09:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -9.98%E -7.03%K -23.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -4.02%E -0.402%K -0.446%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 09:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.23%EV -9.98%E -7.03%K -23.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.05%EV -14.92%E -4.74%K -6.94%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 9.71%EV -12.66%E -1.39%K -1.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 12:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.08%EV -9.98%E -7.03%K -23.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.55%EV -13.57%E -4.24%K -6.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.37%EV -18.42%E -2.17%K -2.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-02 07:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.80%EV -11.25%E -8.04%K -28.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-01 18:24
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.80%EV -11.25%E -8.04%K -28.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -13.62%E -1.51%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-01 18:24
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.43%EV -11.25%E -8.04%K -28.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -18.42%E -2.17%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 16:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.43%EV -11.25%E -8.04%K -28.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -18.42%E -2.17%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 16:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.43%EV -11.25%E -8.04%K -28.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -18.42%E -2.17%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 16:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.59%EV -11.25%E -8.04%K -28.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.27%EV -17.62%E -5.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.14%EV -18.42%E -2.17%K -2.46%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-02 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 61.80%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.37%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.83%15.6%2026-05-02 09:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%6.1%2026-05-03 08:50