The School of Odds
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HSV Hamburg v TVB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:01 UTC

Final: HSV Hamburg 34–34 TVB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 50.15%1.99fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.24%50.77%50.16%56.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.771.761.9060.24%56.40%56.82%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TVB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 37.88%2.64fair odd
EV +7.95%
Edge +2.79%
Kelly +4.29%
Growth +0.341%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.08%37.56%37.77%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.432.422.8544.84%41.15%41.24%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.97%8.35fair odd
EV +13.72%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.221%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.75%11.67%12.07%12.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.378.259.5014.29%11.94%12.12%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 50.15%; TVB Stuttgart (Visit): 37.88%; Draw: 11.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.35. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.72%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.79%EV -16.74%E -10.09%K -25.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.08%EV +7.95%E +2.79%K +4.29%G +0.341%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.14%EV +11.32%E +1.22%K +1.36%G +0.154%6.1%2026-09-02 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.83%EV -11.23%E -6.34%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -5.31%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:38
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -12.23%E -6.99%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -6.07%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +13.72%E +1.44%K +1.61%G +0.221%8.0%2026-09-02 15:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.29%EV -7.72%E -4.19%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.77%EV -7.21%E -2.94%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -7.23%E -0.933%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.70%EV -7.72%E -4.19%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.10%EV -9.10%E -3.79%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 16:40
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.69%EV -9.10%E -3.79%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-02 16:40
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -9.86%E -4.14%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-02 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -9.86%E -4.14%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-02 14:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -9.86%E -4.14%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-02 14:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.25%EV -11.73%E -6.66%K -15.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.63%EV -10.99%E -4.68%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.12%EV -12.62%E -1.73%K -2.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 16:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.21%EV -11.73%E -6.66%K -15.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.60%EV -10.99%E -4.68%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.19%EV -13.22%E -1.82%K -2.11%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.29%EV -15.74%E -9.37%K -23.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.38%EV -10.99%E -4.68%K -8.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV +1.75%E +0.206%K +0.233%G +0.004%13.8%2026-09-02 15:40
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.03%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.37%EV -12.89%E -5.60%K -9.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -16.21%E -2.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-02 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.03%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.37%EV -12.89%E -5.60%K -9.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -16.21%E -2.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-02 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.24%EV -4.71%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.10%EV -15.54%E -6.97%K -12.63%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.66%EV +2.94%E +0.342%K +0.387%G +0.011%9.1%2026-09-02 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 49.87%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.40%15.2%2026-09-02 16:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-09-02 16:50