The School of Odds
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HSV Hamburg v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:30 UTC

Final: HSV Hamburg 31–32 Frisch Auf Göppingen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 53.35%1.87fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.699%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.00%53.32%53.16%55.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.721.8560.61%58.31%58.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 35.28%2.83fair odd
EV -6.52%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.27%35.51%35.25%38.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.532.502.6542.55%39.55%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.37%8.80fair odd
EV +8.00%
Edge +0.842%
Kelly +0.941%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.67%11.16%11.59%11.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.548.659.5013.33%11.71%11.56%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 53.35%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 35.28%; Draw: 11.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.80. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:48
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -11.96%E -7.25%K -18.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -6.52%E -2.46%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.9%2026-09-13 09:45
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.00%EV -1.29%E -0.699%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.51%EV -13.57%E -5.54%K -9.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +2.31%E +0.257%K +0.289%G +0.007%6.0%2026-09-13 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.47%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.67%EV -9.34%E -3.63%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.42%EV +0.038%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.29%EV -10.36%E -6.17%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.38%EV -17.10%E -7.28%K -12.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -3.37%E -0.397%K -0.450%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-13 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.23%E -4.78%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -6.52%E -2.46%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -9.06%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -9.06%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.31%EV -11.43%E -6.89%K -17.32%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 34.97%EV -10.75%E -4.25%K -7.03%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 11.72%EV -14.17%E -1.88%K -2.16%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 14:11
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:55
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -8.23%E -4.78%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 14:25
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%EV -10.36%E -6.17%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.04%EV -11.43%E -6.89%K -17.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.22%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-13 14:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 52.94%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.01%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.06%15.2%2026-09-13 14:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-09-13 14:11