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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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HSV Hamburg v Frisch Auf Göppingen

开赛时间： 2026-09-13 14:30 UTC

最终结果： HSV Hamburg 31–32 Frisch Auf Göppingen

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

22 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

HSV Hamburg (主队)

预测 53.35%1.87公平赔率
EV -1.29%
优势 -0.699%
Kelly -1.52%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.85

博彩公司预测分布
51.00%53.32%53.16%55.67%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.651.721.721.8560.61%58.31%58.14%54.05%最小值均值中位数最大值

Frisch Auf Göppingen (客队)

预测 35.28%2.83公平赔率
EV -6.52%
优势 -2.46%
Kelly -3.95%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.65

博彩公司预测分布
34.27%35.51%35.25%38.51%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.352.532.502.6542.55%39.55%40.00%37.74%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 11.37%8.80公平赔率
EV +8.00%
优势 +0.842%
Kelly +0.941%
增长率 +0.075%

假设最高赔率为 9.50

博彩公司预测分布
9.67%11.16%11.59%11.97%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
7.508.548.659.5013.33%11.71%11.56%10.53%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：HSV Hamburg (主队)：53.35%；Frisch Auf Göppingen (客队)：35.28%；平局：11.37%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为8.80。 当时有11家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为9.50，对应+8.00%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (22 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队平局 ▼利润率更新时间
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.91%EV -6.63%E -3.79%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -12.51%E -5.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.0%2026-09-13 13:48
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -11.96%E -7.25%K -18.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -6.52%E -2.46%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV +8.00%E +0.842%K +0.941%G +0.075%8.9%2026-09-13 09:45
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.00%EV -1.29%E -0.699%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.51%EV -13.57%E -5.54%K -9.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +2.31%E +0.257%K +0.289%G +0.007%6.0%2026-09-13 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.92%EV -9.30%E -5.47%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.67%EV -9.34%E -3.63%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.42%EV +0.038%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.29%EV -10.36%E -6.17%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.38%EV -17.10%E -7.28%K -12.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -3.37%E -0.397%K -0.450%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-13 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.23%E -4.78%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -6.52%E -2.46%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -9.06%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.28%E -3.18%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -9.06%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.31%EV -11.43%E -6.89%K -17.32%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 34.97%EV -10.75%E -4.25%K -7.03%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 11.72%EV -14.17%E -1.88%K -2.16%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 14:11
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.53%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -7.57%E -2.89%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:55
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.16%EV -8.23%E -4.78%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 14:25
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%EV -10.36%E -6.17%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.04%EV -11.43%E -6.89%K -17.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.22%EV -11.81%E -4.72%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -14.74%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-13 14:16
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (1)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 52.94%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.01%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.06%15.2%2026-09-13 14:15

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2利润率 ▲更新时间
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-09-13 14:11