The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HSV Hamburg v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-05-25 18:00 UTC

Final: HSV Hamburg 28–34 Frisch Auf Göppingen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 56.88%1.76fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.70%57.39%56.85%63.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.641.621.7166.67%61.06%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 32.76%3.05fair odd
EV +14.65%
Edge +4.19%
Kelly +5.86%
Growth +0.858%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%32.26%32.83%35.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.722.653.5040.82%36.82%37.74%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.36%9.65fair odd
EV +3.61%
Edge +0.361%
Kelly +0.401%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%10.35%10.32%11.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.448.0010.0012.50%11.85%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 56.88%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 32.76%; Draw: 10.36%. For Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.65%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.35%EV -14.68%E -9.78%K -29.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV +14.65%E +4.19%K +5.86%G +0.858%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.61%E +0.361%K +0.401%G +0.014%5.2%2026-05-25 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.59%EV -10.69%E -6.81%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -6.75%E -0.750%K -0.844%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:28
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.30%EV -8.99%E -5.62%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.63%EV -7.95%E -2.83%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.07%EV -5.71%E -0.628%K -0.705%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-25 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -7.85%E -4.85%K -12.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -8.28%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -6.75%E -0.750%K -0.844%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-25 15:30
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.29%EV -10.69%E -6.81%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -8.28%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV -11.93%E -1.40%K -1.59%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-25 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.41%EV -8.42%E -5.23%K -13.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -9.92%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.56%EV -10.89%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-25 15:30
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.41%EV -8.42%E -5.23%K -13.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -9.92%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.56%EV -10.89%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-25 15:30
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.59%EV -10.69%E -6.81%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -9.92%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-25 13:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.59%EV -10.69%E -6.81%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -9.92%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-25 13:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.59%EV -10.69%E -6.81%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -9.92%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-25 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.30%EV -10.69%E -6.81%K -18.76%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.98%EV -12.21%E -4.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.71%EV -14.52%E -1.76%K -2.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-25 17:50
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:20
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:20
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:19
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.71%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.56%EV -3.30%E -1.94%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.67%EV -14.83%E -5.71%K -9.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -1.57%E -0.165%K -0.185%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-25 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.61%EV -8.42%E -5.23%K -13.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.44%EV -14.83%E -5.71%K -9.27%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -6.75%E -0.750%K -0.844%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-25 10:29
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.61%EV -8.42%E -5.23%K -13.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.44%EV -14.83%E -5.71%K -9.27%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -6.75%E -0.750%K -0.844%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-25 10:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.89%EV -7.28%E -4.47%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -18.11%E -7.24%K -12.07%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -17.11%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-25 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.70%EV -6.71%E -4.09%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.94%EV -19.75%E -8.06%K -13.62%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.36%EV -11.93%E -1.40%K -1.59%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-25 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 56.01%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.14%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.85%15.2%2026-05-25 15:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%5.9%2026-05-25 14:40