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HSV Hamburg v Bergischer HC

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 72.63%1.38fair odd
EV -7.76%
Edge -6.11%
Kelly -28.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.27%72.73%72.69%74.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.251.251.2782.64%79.97%79.68%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bergischer HC (Visit)

Prediction 19.07%5.25fair odd
EV +0.092%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.022%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.61%18.99%19.02%20.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.925.005.2522.99%20.34%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.30%12.05fair odd
EV +3.77%
Edge +0.302%
Kelly +0.328%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.42%8.29%8.29%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0010.7710.5012.5010.00%9.28%9.52%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 72.63%; Bergischer HC (Visit): 19.07%; Draw: 8.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.77%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.76%EV -9.93%E -8.01%K -41.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -0.862%E -0.166%K -0.205%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV +3.77%E +0.302%K +0.328%G +0.012%7.9%2026-03-26 17:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.57%EV -9.21%E -7.37%K -36.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -0.378%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-25 09:25
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.98%EV -9.21%E -7.37%K -36.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV +0.092%E +0.017%K +0.022%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-26 16:19
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.21%E -7.37%K -36.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-26 17:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.39%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-26 16:23
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.78%EV -9.21%E -7.37%K -36.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-26 17:25
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.02%EV -8.48%E -6.73%K -32.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-26 17:25
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.02%EV -8.48%E -6.73%K -32.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-26 17:24
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -11.39%E -9.33%K -51.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-26 15:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -11.39%E -9.33%K -51.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-26 15:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.83%EV -12.11%E -10.01%K -57.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.01%EV -8.68%E -0.789%K -0.868%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-26 17:25
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:14
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -7.76%E -6.11%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 09:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.27%EV -9.93%E -8.01%K -41.40%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.32%EV -17.07%E -3.92%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.42%EV -12.83%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-26 17:48
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.39%E -9.33%K -51.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -16.98%E -1.70%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-26 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.39%E -9.33%K -51.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -16.98%E -1.70%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-26 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.39%E -9.33%K -51.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -4.67%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -16.98%E -1.70%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-26 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.23I 81.30%NM 70.63%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.68%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.69%15.1%2026-03-26 17:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.47%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.53%6.7%2026-03-26 17:05