Language:English
HSG Wetzlar v THW Kiel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
HSG Wetzlar (Local)
Prediction 24.93%4.01fair odd
EV -0.281%
Edge -0.070%
Kelly -0.094%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.23%24.91%25.16%25.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.733.794.0029.41%26.78%26.39%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
THW Kiel (Visit)
Prediction 65.79%1.52fair odd
EV -7.24%
Edge -5.14%
Kelly -17.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.47%65.75%65.60%68.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.381.4176.92%72.95%72.46%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 9.28%10.77fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.240%
Kelly -0.266%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 10.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.75%9.34%9.24%9.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.7410.0010.5011.11%10.26%10.00%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSG Wetzlar (Local): 24.93%; THW Kiel (Visit): 65.79%; Draw: 9.28%. For HSG Wetzlar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.281%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -0.281%E -0.070%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -14.48%E -11.14%K -48.26%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -0.281%E -0.070%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -14.48%E -11.14%K -48.26%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 17:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -4.02%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 17:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.62%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.07%EV -9.87%E -7.21%K -26.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -2.52%E -0.240%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 17:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.27%EV -5.77%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -9.21%E -6.68%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.27%EV -8.09%E -0.817%K -0.909%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.51%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.41%EV -10.53%E -7.74%K -29.25%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -6.51%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.06%EV -10.53%E -7.74%K -29.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 17:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -6.51%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.06%EV -10.53%E -7.74%K -29.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 17:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -6.51%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.06%EV -10.53%E -7.74%K -29.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 17:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.70%EV -7.24%E -5.14%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -9.01%E -2.47%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.64%EV -7.90%E -5.64%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -10.25%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.41%EV -7.90%E -5.64%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -7.16%E -0.716%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -10.25%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.25%EV -12.50%E -9.40%K -37.89%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.27%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-02 15:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.50%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.22%EV -8.56%E -6.16%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.25%EV -9.02%E -0.921%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -11.50%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.22%EV -8.56%E -6.16%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.25%EV -9.02%E -0.921%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 25.89%EV -14.74%E -4.31%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.64%EV -9.87%E -7.21%K -26.68%G +0.000% | 9.35I 10.70%NM 9.47%EV -13.20%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-02 17:53 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -15.24%E -4.48%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.47%EV -10.53%E -7.74%K -29.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.74%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.24% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.14% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.62% | 15.5% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 17:30 |