The School of Odds
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HBW Balingen-Weilstetten v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:00 UTC

Final: HBW Balingen-Weilstetten 30–26 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Local)

Prediction 28.21%3.54fair odd
EV +7.21%
Edge +1.90%
Kelly +2.57%
Growth +0.186%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.11%27.85%28.19%28.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.353.303.8032.79%29.81%30.30%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 62.20%1.61fair odd
EV -7.33%
Edge -4.92%
Kelly -14.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.27%62.59%62.15%65.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.4973.53%69.69%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.59%10.43fair odd
EV +10.31%
Edge +0.896%
Kelly +0.982%
Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.04%9.56%9.67%9.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.2610.0011.5011.11%9.75%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Local): 28.21%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 62.20%; Draw: 9.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.43. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.31%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV +7.21%E +1.90%K +2.57%G +0.186%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -9.82%E -6.77%K -21.81%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +0.715%E +0.068%K +0.075%G +0.001%4.8%2026-08-30 09:14
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.55%EV -12.30%E -8.73%K -30.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +10.31%E +0.896%K +0.982%G +0.101%8.2%2026-08-30 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -9.82%E -6.77%K -21.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -8.88%E -0.934%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 10:19
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.48%EV -7.33%E -4.92%K -14.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.08%E -0.408%K -0.453%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 10:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.64%EV -7.95%E -5.37%K -16.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.08%E -0.408%K -0.453%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 10:20
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.97%EV -10.44%E -7.25%K -23.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -8.88%E -0.934%K -1.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 10:19
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.59%EV -15.41%E -11.33%K -42.82%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.78%EV -4.08%E -0.408%K -0.453%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-30 07:50
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.38%EV -10.44%E -7.25%K -23.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -13.67%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 15:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.38%EV -10.44%E -7.25%K -23.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -13.67%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.38%EV -10.44%E -7.25%K -23.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -13.67%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 15:29
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.30%EV -8.59%E -2.65%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.95%EV -7.95%E -5.37%K -16.56%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.75%EV -9.84%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 10:10
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.86%EV -8.57%E -5.83%K -18.24%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.28%EV -6.00%E -0.612%K -0.682%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 10:19
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.86%EV -8.57%E -5.83%K -18.24%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.28%EV -6.00%E -0.612%K -0.682%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 10:19
Betclic (FR)🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 28.84%EV -13.39%E -4.36%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.48%EV -10.44%E -7.25%K -23.72%G +0.000%9.15I 10.93%NM 9.68%EV -12.23%E -1.34%K -1.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 15:48
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -13.95%E -4.57%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.27%EV -10.44%E -7.25%K -23.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -13.67%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-30 10:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 29.09%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.05%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.85%15.3%2026-08-30 10:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%6.5%2026-08-30 12:50