The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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GWD Minden v THW Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-06-03 17:00 UTC

Final: GWD Minden 34–30 THW Kiel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

GWD Minden (Local)

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.796%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%26.70%26.37%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.513.523.7030.77%28.47%28.37%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

THW Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 64.13%1.56fair odd
EV -0.604%
Edge -0.390%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.43%63.79%64.25%65.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.421.5573.53%70.77%70.42%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.43%10.61fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -0.636%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.17%9.52%9.38%10.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.429.5010.0011.76%10.61%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GWD Minden (Local): 26.45%; THW Kiel (Visit): 64.13%; Draw: 9.43%. For THW Kiel (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.55, with an expected value of -0.604%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -2.15%E -0.581%K -0.796%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.85%EV -12.79%E -9.40%K -35.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -15.15%E -1.68%K -1.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-03 10:59
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -2.15%E -0.581%K -0.796%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.85%EV -12.79%E -9.40%K -35.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -15.15%E -1.68%K -1.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-03 10:59
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:19
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:19
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:19
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:19
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:20
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-03 13:19
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -4.79%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.09%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -10.44%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-03 16:48
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -6.12%E -1.72%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -5.72%E -0.572%K -0.636%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-03 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.72%E -0.572%K -0.636%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-03 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.72%E -0.572%K -0.636%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-03 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.72%E -0.572%K -0.636%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-03 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 26.51%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -7.61%E -0.776%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-03 13:20
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.41%EV -9.58%E -6.80%K -23.37%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.27%EV -7.61%E -0.776%K -0.865%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-03 16:50
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.41%EV -9.58%E -6.80%K -23.37%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.27%EV -7.61%E -0.776%K -0.865%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-03 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.71%EV -12.79%E -9.40%K -35.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.78%EV -15.15%E -1.68%K -1.89%G +0.000%13.6%2026-06-03 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -10.08%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.43%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -19.86%E -2.34%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-03 16:29
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -10.08%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.43%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -19.86%E -2.34%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-03 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -10.08%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.43%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -19.86%E -2.34%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-03 16:29
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.43%EV -0.604%E -0.390%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.72%EV -7.61%E -0.776%K -0.865%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-03 14:49
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -12.73%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.63%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.56%EV -12.79%E -1.38%K -1.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-03 16:48
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.03%EV -14.05%E -4.32%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.21%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.76%EV -15.15%E -1.68%K -1.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-06-03 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%1.37I 72.99%NM 63.14%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.83%15.6%2026-06-03 16:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 25.56%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.44%6.6%2026-06-03 16:50