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GWD Minden v ThSV Eisenach
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
GWD Minden (Local)
Prediction 40.58%2.46fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -5.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.91%40.52%40.55%42.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.212.192.3048.31%45.32%45.66%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
ThSV Eisenach (Visit)
Prediction 47.19%2.12fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.67%47.28%47.23%48.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.961.942.0253.76%51.14%51.41%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.23%8.17fair odd
EV +7.66%
Edge +0.870%
Kelly +0.982%
Growth +0.075%
assuming max odds 8.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.43%12.20%12.22%13.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.807.587.558.8014.71%13.20%13.25%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GWD Minden (Local): 40.58%; ThSV Eisenach (Visit): 47.19%; Draw: 12.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.66%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.77%EV -8.69%E -3.86%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.80%EV -11.29%E -6.01%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV +7.66%E +0.870%K +0.982%G +0.075% | 9.0% | 2026-04-24 01:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.89%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.13%E -0.266%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.48%EV -6.66%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -7.52%E -3.83%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.01%EV -5.19%E -0.669%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 22:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.66%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.98%EV -5.19%E -0.669%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-24 03:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.61%EV -8.29%E -3.67%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.31%EV -8.46%E -4.36%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.08%EV -7.02%E -0.924%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.75%EV -8.69%E -3.86%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.02%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -8.24%E -1.10%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 40.56%EV -9.10%E -4.06%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -9.40%E -4.90%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -8.24%E -1.10%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-23 22:18 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.58%EV -16.00%E -7.73%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.67%EV -8.93%E -4.63%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -8.24%E -1.10%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 40.50%EV -9.10%E -4.06%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -9.40%E -4.90%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.26%EV -9.47%E -1.28%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 40.50%EV -9.10%E -4.06%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -9.40%E -4.90%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.26%EV -9.47%E -1.28%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.01%EV -8.69%E -3.86%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.13%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 22:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -10.72%E -4.87%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -10.72%E -4.87%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -10.72%E -4.87%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.75%E -5.93%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-23 19:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.75%E -5.93%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-23 19:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.60%EV -12.75%E -5.93%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.93%EV -12.24%E -6.58%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.47%EV -14.36%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-23 22:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.91%EV -6.66%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.59%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.50%EV -16.81%E -2.47%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 22:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 40.51% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.11% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.38% | 15.4% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |