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GWD Minden v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

GWD Minden (Local)

Prediction 29.79%3.36fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.378%
Kelly +0.535%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%29.63%30.07%31.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.213.203.4035.71%31.18%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 60.30%1.66fair odd
EV -6.54%
Edge -4.22%
Kelly -11.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.90%60.34%60.12%62.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.461.5571.43%67.84%68.49%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.91%10.09fair odd
EV -0.858%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.18%10.03%9.81%11.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.208.989.0010.0012.20%11.14%11.11%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GWD Minden (Local): 29.79%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 60.30%; Draw: 9.91%. For GWD Minden (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.28%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.83%EV -11.97%E -8.20%K -26.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 12:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.83%EV -11.97%E -8.20%K -26.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 12:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.83%EV -11.97%E -8.20%K -26.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 12:55
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.99%EV -12.57%E -8.67%K -27.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 12:55
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.99%EV -12.57%E -8.67%K -27.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.99%EV -12.57%E -8.67%K -27.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 12:55
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.99%EV -12.57%E -8.67%K -27.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 12:54
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.99%EV -12.57%E -8.67%K -27.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 12:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV +1.28%E +0.378%K +0.535%G +0.007%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.99%EV -12.57%E -8.67%K -27.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 27.64%EV -1.10%E -0.331%K -0.473%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -9.56%E -6.37%K -19.11%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.19%EV -18.70%E -2.28%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 13:40
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -1.69%E -0.513%K -0.737%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.68%EV -9.56%E -6.37%K -19.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-05 13:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -3.18%E -0.980%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.68%EV -15.59%E -11.13%K -38.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.32%EV -15.73%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-03 12:55
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -4.67%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.75%EV -13.17%E -9.15%K -29.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -15.73%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 06:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -4.67%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.75%EV -13.17%E -9.15%K -29.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -15.73%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 06:50
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -4.67%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.75%EV -13.17%E -9.15%K -29.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -15.73%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-05 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -4.67%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.75%EV -13.17%E -9.15%K -29.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -15.73%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-05 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -4.67%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.75%EV -13.17%E -9.15%K -29.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -15.73%E -1.85%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-05 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.65%E -2.47%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.20%EV -9.56%E -6.37%K -19.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -0.858%E -0.086%K -0.095%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.44%EV -9.14%E -3.00%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.28%EV -7.14%E -4.64%K -13.23%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -0.858%E -0.086%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -10.63%E -3.54%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -6.54%E -4.22%K -11.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.81%E -0.612%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 13:54
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -10.63%E -3.54%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.75%E -5.06%K -14.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 13:54
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.85%EV -12.12%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.47%EV -7.75%E -5.06%K -14.62%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.68%EV -6.81%E -0.724%K -0.810%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-05 13:55
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.85%EV -12.12%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.47%EV -7.75%E -5.06%K -14.62%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.68%EV -6.81%E -0.724%K -0.810%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-05 13:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -15.10%E -5.30%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.00%EV -9.56%E -6.37%K -19.11%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 9.94%EV -11.76%E -1.32%K -1.49%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-05 14:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -16.59%E -5.92%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.90%EV -10.16%E -6.82%K -20.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.75%EV -10.77%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-05 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-04-05 13:35