Language:English
GWD Minden v Bergischer HC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
GWD Minden (Local)
Prediction 44.76%2.23fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.86%44.85%44.61%46.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.052.1051.28%49.22%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bergischer HC (Visit)
Prediction 42.92%2.33fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%43.17%42.62%45.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.112.102.2151.81%47.40%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.32%8.12fair odd
EV +10.86%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.148%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.89%11.98%12.76%13.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.587.509.0015.38%13.20%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GWD Minden (Local): 44.76%; Bergischer HC (Visit): 42.92%; Draw: 12.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.86%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.14%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV +10.86%E +1.21%K +1.36%G +0.148% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 12:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.86%EV -17.16%E -8.89%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 8.95I 11.17%NM 9.89%EV +10.25%E +1.14%K +1.29%G +0.132% | 13.0% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.08%EV -10.93%E -5.49%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.26%EV -9.00%E -4.25%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.66%EV +5.94%E +0.690%K +0.781%G +0.046% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.55%EV -7.35%E -3.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -1.46%E -0.182%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.61%E -1.02%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 14:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -7.61%E -1.02%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 06:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.62%EV -12.28%E -6.26%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.72%EV -14.15%E -7.08%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.66%EV -7.61%E -1.02%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-07 08:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.49%EV -7.28%E -3.37%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.75%EV -11.31%E -1.57%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.71%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-08 10:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.55%EV -8.69%E -4.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.14%E -3.80%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-08 10:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.55%EV -8.69%E -4.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.14%E -3.80%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-08 10:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 10:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 06:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 06:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.86%E -4.69%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -13.77%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 06:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.51%EV -12.28%E -6.26%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.56%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.93%EV -16.85%E -2.50%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-05-08 10:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.72%E -6.52%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -19.93%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-08 06:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.72%E -6.52%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -19.93%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-08 06:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.29% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.55% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.15% | 15.2% | 2026-05-08 10:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 16:44 |