The School of Odds
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Füchse Berlin v VfL Gummersbach

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:01 UTC

Final: Füchse Berlin 33–28 VfL Gummersbach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Füchse Berlin (Local)

Prediction 61.73%1.62fair odd
EV -7.40%
Edge -4.93%
Kelly -14.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.51%61.70%61.60%64.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.451.441.5072.46%68.87%69.20%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Gummersbach (Visit)

Prediction 28.70%3.48fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +0.531%
Kelly +0.740%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.06%28.65%28.81%29.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.343.313.5533.90%29.91%30.17%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.57%10.45fair odd
EV +0.438%
Edge +0.042%
Kelly +0.046%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.75%9.66%9.59%11.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.5910.0010.5012.50%10.42%10.00%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Füchse Berlin (Local): 61.73%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 28.70%; Draw: 9.57%. For VfL Gummersbach (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.89%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:10
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:10
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:11
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -11.72%E -8.20%K -27.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV +1.89%E +0.531%K +0.740%G +0.014%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:15
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.04%EV -7.40%E -4.93%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -0.984%E -0.285%K -0.402%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.55%EV -5.30%E -0.536%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 11:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.89%EV -14.81%E -10.73%K -38.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -3.85%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -13.91%E -1.55%K -1.74%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-13 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.39%EV -9.25%E -6.29%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.96%EV -5.86%E -1.79%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.13%E -0.961%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 15:40
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.12%EV -9.25%E -6.29%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -23.48%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 15:55
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.12%EV -9.25%E -6.29%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -23.48%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -7.40%E -4.93%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 15:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -7.40%E -4.93%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.35%E -0.435%K -0.483%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.52%EV -9.25%E -6.29%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV +0.438%E +0.042%K +0.046%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.11%EV -11.10%E -7.71%K -25.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -13.91%E -1.55%K -1.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.54%EV -8.02%E -5.38%K -16.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -9.59%E -3.05%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -6.26%E -0.639%K -0.711%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 15:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.68%EV -9.87%E -6.76%K -21.45%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 29.63%EV -14.19%E -4.74%K -7.13%G +0.000%9.15I 10.93%NM 9.68%EV -12.48%E -1.36%K -1.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -10.49%E -7.23%K -23.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.74%EV -15.33%E -5.20%K -7.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.75%EV -13.91%E -1.55%K -1.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-13 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 60.36%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.77%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.88%15.1%2026-09-13 15:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.71%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.29%6.5%2026-09-13 15:15