The School of Odds
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Frisch Auf Göppingen v THW Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local)

Prediction 18.27%5.47fair odd
EV +5.95%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.074%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.93%18.16%18.44%20.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.255.235.005.8023.53%19.11%20.00%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

THW Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 73.28%1.36fair odd
EV -7.67%
Edge -6.09%
Kelly -29.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.31%73.42%73.14%76.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.231.221.2682.64%81.59%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.45%11.83fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.133%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.69%8.42%8.42%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.2311.0012.0010.00%8.90%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local): 18.27%; THW Kiel (Visit): 73.28%; Draw: 8.45%. For Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.47. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
Grosvenor🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
Casumo🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:04
Unibet (NL)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
LeoVegas🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
Unibet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:04
Svenska Spel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV +5.95%E +1.03%K +1.24%G +0.074%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.2%2026-02-21 15:05
Coolbet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV +0.473%E +0.086%K +0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.73%EV -9.14%E -7.37%K -38.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -5.01%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.56%EV -8.40%E -6.72%K -33.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -11.22%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-20 08:10
Winamax (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.69%EV -7.67%E -6.09%K -29.50%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%7.7%2026-02-20 08:05
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -8.40%E -6.72%K -33.61%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +1.46%E +0.122%K +0.133%G +0.002%8.3%2026-02-20 05:35
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -10.60%E -8.69%K -48.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-20 05:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -10.60%E -8.69%K -48.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 12:25
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -10.60%E -8.69%K -48.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 12:25
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -10.60%E -8.69%K -48.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -15.45%E -1.55%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-20 11:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -10.60%E -8.69%K -48.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -15.45%E -1.55%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-20 11:49
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -8.66%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -10.60%E -8.69%K -48.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -15.45%E -1.55%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-20 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -10.49%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.76%EV -7.67%E -6.09%K -29.50%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.53%EV -9.11%E -0.847%K -0.934%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-20 11:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -10.49%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.06%EV -8.40%E -6.72%K -33.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-20 18:05
NordicBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -12.31%E -2.57%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.78%EV -8.40%E -6.72%K -33.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-20 08:05
Betsson🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -12.31%E -2.57%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.78%EV -8.40%E -6.72%K -33.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -7.00%E -0.636%K -0.700%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-20 08:05
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -21.45%E -4.99%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 71.31%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.63%EV -15.45%E -1.55%K -1.72%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-20 05:35
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.34%EV -22.36%E -5.26%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 71.43%EV -11.33%E -9.37%K -53.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.23%EV -11.22%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-21 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 20.18%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.14%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.68%15.2%2026-02-20 08:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 9.52%1.30I 76.92%NM 39.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.92%94.5%2026-02-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 9.52%1.30I 76.92%NM 39.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.92%94.5%2026-02-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 36.01%1.30I 76.92%NM 27.98%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.01%174.9%2026-02-21 17:35