The School of Odds
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Frisch Auf Göppingen v Rhein-Neckar Löwen

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Frisch Auf Göppingen 29–28 Rhein-Neckar Löwen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local)

Prediction 38.61%2.59fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.49%39.14%38.43%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.292.252.4546.73%43.60%44.44%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Visit)

Prediction 49.22%2.03fair odd
EV +0.893%
Edge +0.436%
Kelly +0.850%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.98%48.94%49.29%51.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.872.0556.18%53.20%53.48%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.17%8.21fair odd
EV +8.34%
Edge +0.938%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 8.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%11.92%12.28%12.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.857.758.9014.29%12.73%12.90%11.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local): 38.61%; Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Visit): 49.22%; Draw: 12.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.21. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.34%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.43%EV -16.22%E -7.47%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.98%EV +0.893%E +0.436%K +0.850%G +0.008%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.59%EV +8.34%E +0.938%K +1.06%G +0.088%6.1%2026-09-17 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.94%EV -13.51%E -6.03%K -10.90%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.52%EV -6.98%E -3.69%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.54%EV +5.91%E +0.679%K +0.767%G +0.045%9.0%2026-09-17 15:10
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -4.52%E -2.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-09-17 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -4.52%E -2.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-09-17 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -4.52%E -2.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-09-17 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.36%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.79%EV -5.01%E -2.60%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.4%2026-09-17 12:20
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.36%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.79%EV -5.01%E -2.60%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.4%2026-09-17 12:21
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.36%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.79%EV -5.01%E -2.60%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.4%2026-09-17 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.36%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.79%EV -5.01%E -2.60%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.4%2026-09-17 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.36%EV -13.90%E -6.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.79%EV -5.01%E -2.60%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.47%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.4%2026-09-17 12:21
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -5.40%E -2.21%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.03%EV -11.41%E -6.34%K -14.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -2.61%E -0.327%K -0.373%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-17 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.33%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.63%EV -8.46%E -4.55%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.91%EV -5.66%E -0.730%K -0.838%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-17 16:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.37%EV -7.72%E -3.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -8.95%E -4.84%K -10.53%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.07%EV -7.48%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 15:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.33%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.90%EV -6.49%E -3.42%K -7.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -8.70%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -9.27%E -3.94%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.17%EV -8.95%E -4.84%K -10.53%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -8.70%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-17 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.16%EV -17.37%E -8.12%K -15.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.10%EV -7.97%E -4.26%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -8.70%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-17 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.40%EV -11.20%E -4.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.34%EV -11.90%E -6.65%K -15.07%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.27%EV -12.35%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-17 16:49
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -9.93%E -5.43%K -11.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-17 16:55
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -9.93%E -5.43%K -11.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-17 16:16
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -9.93%E -5.43%K -11.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-17 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -9.93%E -5.43%K -11.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-17 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -11.20%E -4.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.30%EV -12.40%E -6.96%K -15.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.54%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-17 16:05
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -13.13%E -5.83%K -10.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.61%EV -11.41%E -6.34%K -14.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -14.79%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-17 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 38.36%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.26%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.38%15.4%2026-09-17 16:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-09-17 16:05