The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fiorentina v Pisa

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 19:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fiorentina (Local)

Prediction 65.01%1.54fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -4.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.28%64.92%65.11%68.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.411.401.5074.63%70.94%71.43%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pisa (Visit)

Prediction 14.08%7.10fair odd
EV +12.64%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.228%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.86%13.89%14.15%15.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.997.008.0016.67%14.31%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.91%4.78fair odd
EV +4.54%
Edge +0.908%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.09%21.19%20.74%23.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.494.505.0025.00%22.25%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fiorentina (Local): 65.01%; Pisa (Visit): 14.08%; Draw: 20.91%. For Pisa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.10. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +12.64%E +1.58%K +1.81%G +0.228%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV +2.45%E +0.500%K +0.628%G +0.015%5.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +12.64%E +1.58%K +1.81%G +0.228%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV +2.45%E +0.500%K +0.628%G +0.015%5.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +12.64%E +1.58%K +1.81%G +0.228%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV +2.45%E +0.500%K +0.628%G +0.015%5.4%2026-09-15 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +12.64%E +1.58%K +1.81%G +0.228%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV +2.45%E +0.500%K +0.628%G +0.015%5.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -10.28%E -7.45%K -27.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV +12.64%E +1.58%K +1.81%G +0.228%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV +2.45%E +0.500%K +0.628%G +0.015%5.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.60%EV -5.08%E -3.48%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.64I 13.09%NM 12.54%EV +7.57%E +0.991%K +1.14%G +0.086%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.87%EV -8.42%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-15 18:56
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV +5.60%E +0.746%K +0.861%G +0.048%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +4.54%E +0.908%K +1.13%G +0.052%4.8%2026-09-15 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -11.58%E -8.52%K -32.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV +5.60%E +0.746%K +0.861%G +0.048%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 19:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -12.23%E -9.06%K -34.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV +5.60%E +0.746%K +0.861%G +0.048%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -12.23%E -9.06%K -34.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV +5.60%E +0.746%K +0.861%G +0.048%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 18:55
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.64%EV -4.43%E -3.01%K -9.43%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.84%EV +4.19%E +0.566%K +0.655%G +0.027%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.52%EV -11.77%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 18:59
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -1.44%E -0.206%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -1.44%E -0.206%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.47%E -2.19%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -1.44%E -0.206%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -10.10%E -2.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -1.44%E -0.206%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 18:56
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -12.88%E -9.61%K -37.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -1.44%E -0.206%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -12.88%E -9.61%K -37.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -1.44%E -0.206%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.61%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%EV -4.26%E -0.626%K -0.734%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -8.01%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 19:01
Codere (IT)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.15%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.31%EV -7.07%E -1.07%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 19:00
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -3.82%E -0.831%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 19:00
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -16.37%E -4.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 19:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:59
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -8.01%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 18:59
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.98%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -8.48%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -8.01%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.01%EV -9.63%E -6.93%K -24.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -12.00%E -1.92%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -8.01%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -15.52%E -2.59%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 19:01
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -15.52%E -2.59%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -5.91%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-15 19:00
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -15.52%E -2.59%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -12.19%E -2.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-15 19:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.39%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.09%0.9%2026-09-15 19:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%0.9%2026-09-15 19:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 64.86%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%2.1%2026-09-15 19:01