The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Welsh Fire v MI London

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Welsh Fire (Local)

Prediction 38.79%2.58fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.701%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%38.86%39.09%45.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.412.402.5549.26%41.47%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MI London (Visit)

Prediction 61.21%1.63fair odd
EV +4.06%
Edge +2.39%
Kelly +5.80%
Growth +0.235%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.42%61.14%60.91%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.551.7066.67%64.35%64.52%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Welsh Fire (Local): 38.79%; MI London (Visit): 61.21%. For MI London (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -21.26%E -10.47%K -20.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV +4.06%E +2.39%K +5.80%G +0.235%8.1%2026-07-25 16:30
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -9.23%E -3.95%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -1.45%E -0.901%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 16:50
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.29%E -2.08%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.29%E -2.08%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.29%E -2.08%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.90%E -2.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 16:40
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.68%E -3.23%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.90%E -2.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 16:44
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.51%E -2.89%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 16:55
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.51%E -2.89%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 16:55
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.51%E -2.89%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.12%E -3.31%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 16:50
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.12%E -3.31%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 16:50
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.74%E -3.72%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 16:45
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.90%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.74%E -3.72%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 16:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.35%E -4.15%K -11.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 16:45
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.09%E -0.426%K -0.701%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.96%E -4.58%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 16:45
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.09%E -0.426%K -0.701%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.96%E -4.58%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 16:40
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.96%E -4.58%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.03%E -1.21%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.96%E -4.58%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%EV -8.46%E -3.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%EV -6.96%E -4.58%K -13.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 16:55
SportsBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%EV -5.35%E -2.19%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%EV -7.57%E -5.01%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 16:50
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.97%E -2.03%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.18%E -5.46%K -16.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-07-25 16:55
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%0.5%2026-07-25 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-07-25 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-07-25 16:55

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