The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Welsh Fire v London Spirit

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Welsh Fire (Local)

Prediction 56.31%1.78fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.42%56.18%56.34%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.681.671.7461.73%59.70%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

London Spirit (Visit)

Prediction 43.69%2.29fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.750%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%43.82%43.66%45.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.182.202.2549.26%45.98%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Welsh Fire (Local): 56.31%; London Spirit (Visit): 43.69%. For London Spirit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -2.03%E -1.17%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -7.81%E -3.70%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-10 14:15
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.59%E -1.50%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.72%E -2.17%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.72%E -2.17%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -3.72%E -2.17%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.43%E -5.09%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 02:05
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.28%E -2.52%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.28%E -2.52%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.06%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:59
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.28%E -2.52%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.06%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:59
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -4.28%E -2.52%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -11.30%E -5.57%K -10.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.84%E -2.87%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.06%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-12 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 13:54
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 13:55
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:59
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:40
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:35
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:35
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:55
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 13:30
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.06%E -2.82%K -5.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 13:29
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 13:59
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.97%E -3.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.24%E -3.92%K -7.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 13:58
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.53%E -3.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.56%E -1.15%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.53%E -3.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.56%E -1.15%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.53%E -3.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.56%E -1.15%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.53%E -3.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.56%E -1.15%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 13:54
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -6.53%E -3.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -2.56%E -1.15%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 13:54
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.10%E -4.30%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 13:29
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -7.66%E -4.67%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -5.18%E -2.39%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-12 13:55
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -8.22%E -5.04%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -3.87%E -1.76%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -8.22%E -5.04%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -6.49%E -3.03%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.78%E -5.42%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.69%E -0.750%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-12 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-08-12 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-08-12 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-08-12 13:50
Matchbook◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-08-12 13:50
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%2.1%2026-08-12 13:55