The School of Odds
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Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester Super Giants (Local)

Prediction 46.40%2.16fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.30%46.48%47.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.052.1051.28%49.25%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sunrisers Leeds (Visit)

Prediction 53.60%1.87fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.56%53.70%53.52%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.751.8058.48%56.76%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester Super Giants (Local): 46.40%; Sunrisers Leeds (Visit): 53.60%. For Manchester Super Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.56%E -1.22%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 16:44
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.56%E -1.22%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 16:19
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.56%E -1.22%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 16:19
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.56%E -1.22%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 16:19
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 16:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 16:48
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 16:49
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 16:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 16:54
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:19
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 16:34
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.73%E -3.87%K -9.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 16:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.88%E -2.38%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.73%E -3.87%K -9.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.35%E -2.62%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.05%E -2.26%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 16:39
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 16:39
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 16:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 16:39
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.52%E -1.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 16:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 16:49
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 16:53
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 16:54
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 16:40
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.73%E -3.87%K -9.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 16:49
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.73%E -3.87%K -9.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 16:45
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.34%E -4.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 16:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -8.13%E -4.11%K -8.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 16:49
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -8.13%E -4.11%K -8.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -9.52%E -4.88%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%0.2%2026-08-14 16:55
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%0.2%2026-08-14 16:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-08-14 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-08-14 16:55
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%6.7%2026-08-14 16:54