The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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London Spirit v MI London

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

London Spirit (Local)

Prediction 40.51%2.47fair odd
EV +0.870%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.584%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.75%40.33%40.51%42.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.362.352.4945.05%42.38%42.55%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MI London (Visit)

Prediction 59.49%1.68fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.751%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.22%59.67%59.49%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6665.36%63.39%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: London Spirit (Local): 40.51%; MI London (Visit): 59.49%. For London Spirit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.870%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +0.870%E +0.349%K +0.584%G +0.005%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.41%E -3.40%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-06 17:20
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:15
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:25
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:15
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.751%E -0.306%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:15
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.59%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 17:10
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.59%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 17:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.59%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 17:10
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.59%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 17:09
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -3.59%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.98%E -5.87%K -16.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.99%E -1.68%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 17:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.99%E -1.68%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 17:10
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.40%E -1.86%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 17:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.22%E -2.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 17:20
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:20
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:20
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 17:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.01%E -3.80%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 17:29
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.01%E -3.80%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 17:25
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 17:20
SportsBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.46%EV -6.42%E -2.78%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 17:20
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.63%E -2.24%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 17:25
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.22%E -2.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 17:20
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.82%E -3.01%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 17:20
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 17:29
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 17:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 17:29
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.60%E -4.20%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 17:25
BetUS🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98%EV -7.23%E -3.16%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.02%EV -5.41%E -3.40%K -9.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-06 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -7.23%E -3.16%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -7.79%E -5.03%K -14.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-06 17:20
Bet Right🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -10.07%E -4.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -1.25%E -0.751%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-08-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-08-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-06 17:25
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-08-06 17:20
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%2.3%2026-08-06 17:25