Language:English
Sri Lanka v India
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sri Lanka (Local)
Prediction 13.44%7.44fair odd
EV +0.783%
Edge +0.104%
Kelly +0.120%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.34%14.08%13.42%18.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.917.007.5020.00%14.47%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
India (Visit)
Prediction 65.78%1.52fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +4.67%
Growth +0.122%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%65.56%65.70%68.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.421.5673.53%70.27%70.42%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.78%4.81fair odd
EV +14.94%
Edge +2.70%
Kelly +3.30%
Growth +0.492%
assuming max odds 5.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.26%20.35%20.88%22.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.504.505.5323.81%22.22%22.22%18.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 13.44%; India (Visit): 65.78%; Draw: 20.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.94%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.78I 14.75%NM 14.08%EV -8.89%E -1.31%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.66%EV -8.57%E -6.16%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 5.53I 18.08%NM 17.26%EV +14.94%E +2.70%K +3.30%G +0.492% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 12:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -19.37%E -3.23%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV +3.92%E +0.784%K +0.980%G +0.038% | 6.1% | 2026-08-21 20:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75%EV -0.561%E -0.076%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.39%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.28%E -0.269%K -0.340%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 04:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75%EV -0.561%E -0.076%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.39%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.28%E -0.269%K -0.340%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.67%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.98%EV -4.62%E -3.19%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%EV -2.32%E -0.493%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.25%EV -11.31%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.31%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -4.39%E -0.955%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 04:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.62%E -3.19%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 04:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.62%E -3.19%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 04:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 04:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 04:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 04:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 04:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -5.94%E -4.15%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 04:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -5.94%E -4.15%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 04:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +0.783%E +0.104%K +0.120%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +0.783%E +0.104%K +0.120%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -32.81%E -6.56%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV +2.61%E +1.68%K +4.67%G +0.122% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.55%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 03:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.39%EV -5.94%E -4.15%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -8.55%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 04:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -6.59%E -4.64%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.55%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 04:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -9.30%E -1.38%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.39%EV -7.25%E -5.14%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -8.55%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 04:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.01%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.01%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.30%EV -10.54%E -7.75%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -10.01%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-23 04:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.65%E -1.95%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -10.54%E -7.75%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -10.01%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-23 04:18 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV +0.783%E +0.104%K +0.120%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.13%EV -7.91%E -5.65%K -19.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -10.63%E -2.47%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.92%EV -2.58%E -0.355%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.04%EV -5.28%E -3.67%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -11.67%E -2.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -5.94%E -0.848%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -6.59%E -4.64%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -11.67%E -2.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 04:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.56%EV -9.30%E -1.38%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.91%EV -7.25%E -5.14%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -11.67%E -2.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 04:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -12.65%E -1.95%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.24%EV -6.59%E -4.64%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -12.71%E -3.03%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-23 04:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.83% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.57% | 0.2% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.22% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92% | 0.4% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.66% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58% | 1.2% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.66% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58% | 1.2% | 2026-08-23 04:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 00:49 |