The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sri Lanka v India

2026-08-15 04:30 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 13.57%7.37fair odd
EV -8.41%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.57%13.57%13.57%14.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.506.636.636.7515.38%15.09%15.09%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 67.35%1.48fair odd
EV -8.41%
Edge -6.18%
Kelly -23.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.35%67.35%67.35%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.361.361.3673.53%73.53%73.53%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.08%5.24fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.36%19.08%19.08%19.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.804.904.905.0020.83%20.41%20.41%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sri Lanka (Local): 13.57%; India (Visit): 67.35%; Draw: 19.08%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -4.59%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -8.41%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.35%EV -8.41%E -6.18%K -23.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.41%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 13:14
betano_uk🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -8.41%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.35%EV -8.41%E -6.18%K -23.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.41%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 13:13
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -11.80%E -1.82%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.41%E -6.18%K -23.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -4.59%E -0.918%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:13
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -11.80%E -1.82%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.41%E -6.18%K -23.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -4.59%E -0.918%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 40.01%1.60I 62.50%NM 44.26%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.74%41.2%2026-08-08 13:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 40.01%1.60I 62.50%NM 44.26%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.74%41.2%2026-08-08 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 50.43%1.60I 62.50%NM 36.56%4.50I 22.22%NM 13.00%70.9%2026-08-08 12:30