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Sri Lanka v India

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 04:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 3.55%28.20fair odd
EV +45.38%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.515%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.23%3.55%3.55%4.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0032.0634.0041.004.76%3.12%2.94%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 74.00%1.35fair odd
EV -5.28%
Edge -4.13%
Kelly -18.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.33%74.00%74.00%76.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.271.2883.33%79.66%78.74%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.46%4.45fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +0.716%
Kelly +0.915%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.37%22.46%22.46%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.134.004.6025.64%24.22%25.00%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 3.55%; India (Visit): 74.00%; Draw: 22.46%. For Sri Lanka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.20. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +45.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
TAB🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.23%EV +45.38%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.515%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.92%EV -9.72%E -7.97%K -44.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-26 04:02
Unibet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
LiveScore Bet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
Virgin Bet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
Casumo🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
BetRivers🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
Grosvenor🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
Unibet (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
ATG (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.66%EV -5.28%E -4.13%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.18%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 14:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.75%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.59%EV -6.02%E -4.74%K -22.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.30%E -2.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 14:44
TABtouch🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.52%EV -6.76%E -5.37%K -26.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.42%E -3.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-25 14:44
Paddy Power🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.81%EV -11.20%E -9.33%K -56.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV +1.05%E +0.233%K +0.300%G +0.003%8.5%2026-08-26 04:02
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +20.56%E +0.605%K +0.623%G +0.128%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.81%EV -11.20%E -9.33%K -56.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV +1.05%E +0.233%K +0.300%G +0.003%8.5%2026-08-26 04:04
Betr (AU)🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.16%EV +2.83%E +0.098%K +0.101%G +0.003%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -7.50%E -6.00%K -30.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -12.42%E -3.19%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-25 11:54
Neds🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV -18.44%E -0.802%K -0.838%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -8.24%E -6.65%K -34.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +3.29%E +0.716%K +0.915%G +0.030%6.7%2026-08-26 04:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV -18.44%E -0.802%K -0.838%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -8.24%E -6.65%K -34.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +3.29%E +0.716%K +0.915%G +0.030%6.7%2026-08-26 04:04
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -25.54%E -1.22%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.34%EV -9.72%E -7.97%K -44.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -4.57%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-26 04:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.76%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-08-26 04:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎46.00I 2.17%NM 2.15%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.18%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.67%1.0%2026-08-26 04:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎46.00I 2.17%NM 2.15%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.18%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.67%1.0%2026-08-26 04:09