The School of Odds
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South Africa v Australia

2026-10-27 08:30 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 43.62%2.29fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.72%43.51%43.62%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.132.102.2047.62%47.01%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 44.14%2.27fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%44.28%44.14%44.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.102.102.1547.62%47.52%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.25%8.17fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.253%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.72%12.20%12.25%13.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.367.508.0014.29%13.58%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: South Africa (Local): 43.62%; Australia (Visit): 44.14%; Draw: 12.25%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.17. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 8.00, with an expected value of -2.03%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -4.04%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -5.11%E -2.38%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 14:45
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -4.04%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.75%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -8.15%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -6.22%E -2.89%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.66%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -2.03%E -0.253%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -6.22%E -2.89%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.66%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -2.03%E -0.253%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 14:49
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.15%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 14:34
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.15%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 14:35
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.15%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 15:54
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 14:35
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 14:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.40%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -14.27%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.07%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.64%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.29%5.7%2026-10-22 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.07%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.64%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.29%5.7%2026-10-22 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.07%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.64%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.29%5.7%2026-10-22 18:40
Matchbook◎1.94I 51.55%NM 45.96%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.66%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.38%12.2%2026-10-22 18:40