The School of Odds
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 08:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 49.15%2.03fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.09%49.11%49.01%49.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.911.911.9554.64%52.28%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.63%39.54%39.30%41.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.352.4544.44%42.67%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.45%8.73fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.380%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.30%11.35%11.69%12.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.268.009.0013.79%12.11%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 49.15%; Australia (Visit): 39.40%; Draw: 11.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.73. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -4.16%E -2.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%5.9%2026-10-27 08:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -4.16%E -2.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%5.9%2026-10-27 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.57%EV -4.65%E -2.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.1%2026-10-27 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.57%EV -4.65%E -2.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.1%2026-10-27 08:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.57%EV -4.65%E -2.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.1%2026-10-27 08:00
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.57%EV -4.65%E -2.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.1%2026-10-27 08:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -5.14%E -2.67%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.07%EV -10.16%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.8%2026-10-27 08:00
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -5.14%E -2.67%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.07%EV -10.16%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.8%2026-10-27 08:00
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -5.14%E -2.67%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.07%EV -10.16%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%6.8%2026-10-27 08:00
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.91%EV -8.09%E -4.33%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.40%E -3.15%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%7.1%2026-10-27 08:00
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -11.34%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV +3.04%E +0.338%K +0.380%G +0.012%7.9%2026-10-27 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.05%EV -6.62%E -3.48%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.66%EV -7.40%E -3.15%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -5.54%E -0.672%K -0.765%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-27 08:14
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.03%EV -4.16%E -2.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.02%EV -3.46%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.95%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-27 08:16
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.55%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -3.46%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-27 08:25
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.15%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 08:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.15%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 08:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.28%EV -6.62%E -3.48%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 08:15
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.31%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 08:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.31%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 08:25
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.31%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 08:15
Betway🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -6.62%E -3.48%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.40%E -3.15%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -8.41%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 08:20
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.53%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.11%EV -6.62%E -2.79%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.53%EV -6.13%E -3.21%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.11%EV -6.62%E -2.79%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 08:25
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%EV -6.62%E -3.48%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 08:24
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -10.06%E -5.50%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 08:16
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -10.06%E -5.50%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 08:16
Neds🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.43%EV -5.64%E -2.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.83%EV -16.99%E -2.34%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.43%EV -5.64%E -2.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.83%EV -16.99%E -2.34%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 08:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.28%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.84%0.2%2026-10-27 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.76%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.18%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%0.5%2026-10-27 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.76%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.18%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%0.5%2026-10-27 08:25
Matchbook◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.08%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%0.7%2026-10-27 08:25