Language:English
Ireland v New Zealand
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ireland (Local)
Prediction 6.53%15.32fair odd
EV +37.03%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.686%
assuming max odds 21.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.43%6.52%6.62%9.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.8413.0021.0010.00%7.22%7.69%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Zealand (Visit)
Prediction 80.33%1.24fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -9.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.01%80.34%79.97%83.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2289.29%85.59%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.14%7.61fair odd
EV +5.14%
Edge +0.642%
Kelly +0.734%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.87%13.15%13.41%15.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.977.008.0016.67%14.35%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ireland (Local): 6.53%; New Zealand (Visit): 80.33%; Draw: 13.14%. For Ireland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.32. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +37.03%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +37.03%E +1.76%K +1.85%G +0.686% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -10.03%E -8.95%K -83.56%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -1.44%E -0.191%K -0.221%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +10.93%E +0.643%K +0.683%G +0.075% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.55%EV -7.62%E -6.62%K -50.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV +5.14%E +0.642%K +0.734%G +0.038% | 5.3% | 2026-05-27 09:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +10.93%E +0.643%K +0.683%G +0.075% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.55%EV -7.62%E -6.62%K -50.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV +5.14%E +0.642%K +0.734%G +0.038% | 5.3% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +10.93%E +0.643%K +0.683%G +0.075% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.55%EV -7.62%E -6.62%K -50.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV +5.14%E +0.642%K +0.734%G +0.038% | 5.3% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.93%E +0.643%K +0.683%G +0.075% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.62%E -6.62%K -50.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-27 09:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV +10.93%E +0.643%K +0.683%G +0.075% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.31%EV -8.42%E -7.39%K -60.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -2.12%E -0.141%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.01%E -5.14%K -35.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-27 09:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -2.12%E -0.141%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -8.42%E -7.39%K -60.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -2.12%E -0.141%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -8.42%E -7.39%K -60.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV -8.64%E -0.617%K -0.665%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -21.15%E -3.52%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.21%E -4.41%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.01%E -5.14%K -35.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -6.01%E -5.14%K -35.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -6.01%E -5.14%K -35.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -15.17%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.46%EV -10.03%E -8.95%K -83.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-27 09:38 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -18.43%E -1.47%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.16%EV -3.60%E -3.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -21.15%E -3.52%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -18.43%E -1.47%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.16%EV -3.60%E -3.00%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -21.15%E -3.52%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -18.43%E -1.47%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -7.62%E -6.62%K -50.78%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -11.29%E -1.67%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.77%EV -23.33%E -1.99%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.37%EV -7.62%E -6.62%K -50.78%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 12.86%EV -6.69%E -0.943%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-27 09:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -28.22%E -2.57%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -1.99%E -1.63%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 10.99I 9.10%NM 8.47%EV -28.29%E -2.57%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.53%EV -6.01%E -5.14%K -35.36%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.01%EV +1.85%E +0.239%K +0.274%G +0.005% | 7.5% | 2026-05-27 03:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -34.75%E -3.47%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -1.99%E -1.63%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -8.01%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.31% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.45% | 0.4% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.73% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.84% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 0.6% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10% | 0.8% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.21% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.43% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36% | 1.1% | 2026-05-27 09:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66% | 4.8% | 2026-05-27 09:40 |