Language:English
England v Pakistan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 76.85%1.30fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -8.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.79%76.87%76.88%78.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.211.201.2784.75%82.81%83.33%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pakistan (Visit)
Prediction 12.56%7.96fair odd
EV +6.73%
Edge +0.792%
Kelly +0.898%
Growth +0.060%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.92%12.50%12.55%13.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.497.508.5015.38%13.34%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 10.59%9.44fair odd
EV +5.94%
Edge +0.594%
Kelly +0.660%
Growth +0.039%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.38%10.62%10.56%12.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.069.0010.0013.33%11.03%11.11%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 76.85%; Pakistan (Visit): 12.56%; Draw: 10.59%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.96. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.73%.
2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.71%EV -7.01%E -5.80%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +6.73%E +0.792%K +0.898%G +0.060% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -20.55%E -2.74%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 08:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 09:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 09:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.88%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.88%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.88%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.63%EV -9.32%E -7.90%K -51.76%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV +0.642%E +0.068%K +0.076%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.03%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.65%E -0.517%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-09 09:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.13%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039% | 6.7% | 2026-09-09 09:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.04%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -15.25%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.85%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 09:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.85%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 09:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.32%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75%EV -7.08%E -0.957%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV +0.642%E +0.068%K +0.076%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.32%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75%EV -7.08%E -0.957%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV +0.642%E +0.068%K +0.076%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.77%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.71%EV -8.96%E -1.24%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.53%EV -7.30%E -0.835%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 09:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.61%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.66%EV -9.59%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.87%EV -2.40%E -1.89%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.57%EV -10.85%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.13I 10.95%NM 10.55%EV -3.28%E -0.359%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-09 08:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.05%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -4.65%E -0.517%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.79%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -17.90%E -2.31%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.79%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -17.90%E -2.31%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.64%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -4.65%E -0.517%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.37%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -15.25%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-09 09:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.37%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -15.25%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-09 09:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.74%EV -9.32%E -7.90%K -51.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -18.38%E -2.83%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 09:43 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.74%EV -9.32%E -7.90%K -51.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -18.38%E -2.83%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 09:43 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.58% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.29% | 0.5% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.52% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.83% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.64% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.52% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.83% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.64% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.43% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03% | 0.7% | 2026-09-09 09:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 09:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |