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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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England v Pakistan

开赛时间： 2026-09-09 10:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

29 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

England (主队)

预测 76.85%1.30公平赔率
EV -2.40%
优势 -1.89%
Kelly -8.89%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.27

博彩公司预测分布
74.79%76.87%76.88%78.88%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.181.211.201.2784.75%82.81%83.33%78.74%最小值均值中位数最大值

Pakistan (客队)

预测 12.56%7.96公平赔率
EV +6.73%
优势 +0.792%
Kelly +0.898%
增长率 +0.060%

假设最高赔率为 8.50

博彩公司预测分布
10.92%12.50%12.55%13.75%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
6.507.497.508.5015.38%13.34%13.33%11.76%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 10.59%9.44公平赔率
EV +5.94%
优势 +0.594%
Kelly +0.660%
增长率 +0.039%

假设最高赔率为 10.00

博彩公司预测分布
9.38%10.62%10.56%12.38%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
7.509.069.0010.0013.33%11.03%11.11%10.00%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：England (主队)：76.85%；Pakistan (客队)：12.56%；平局：10.59%。 对于“Pakistan (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为7.96。 当时有11家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为8.50，对应+6.73%的正期望值。

有 2 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (29 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.71%EV -7.01%E -5.80%K -33.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +6.73%E +0.792%K +0.898%G +0.060%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -20.55%E -2.74%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 08:50
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%5.8%2026-09-09 09:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%5.8%2026-09-09 09:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%5.8%2026-09-09 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%5.8%2026-09-09 09:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%5.8%2026-09-09 09:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.74%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%5.8%2026-09-09 09:35
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.88%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%6.5%2026-09-09 09:35
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.88%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%6.5%2026-09-09 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.88%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.39%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%6.5%2026-09-09 09:35
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.63%EV -9.32%E -7.90%K -51.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +0.453%E +0.057%K +0.065%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV +0.642%E +0.068%K +0.076%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 09:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.03%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -4.65%E -0.517%K -0.582%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:35
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.13%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +5.94%E +0.594%K +0.660%G +0.039%6.7%2026-09-09 09:44
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.04%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -15.25%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 09:55
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.85%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 09:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.85%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -5.82%E -0.777%K -0.896%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.32%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75%EV -7.08%E -0.957%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV +0.642%E +0.068%K +0.076%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 09:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.32%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75%EV -7.08%E -0.957%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV +0.642%E +0.068%K +0.076%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 09:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.77%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.71%EV -8.96%E -1.24%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.53%EV -7.30%E -0.835%K -0.942%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.61%EV -8.55%E -7.18%K -45.00%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.66%EV -9.59%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 09:55
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.87%EV -2.40%E -1.89%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.57%EV -10.85%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.13I 10.95%NM 10.55%EV -3.28%E -0.359%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 08:50
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.05%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -4.65%E -0.517%K -0.582%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.79%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -17.90%E -2.31%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 09:55
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.79%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -17.90%E -2.31%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 09:55
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.64%EV -7.78%E -6.48%K -38.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -4.65%E -0.517%K -0.582%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:54
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.37%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -15.25%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 09:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.37%EV -6.24%E -5.12%K -28.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.10%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -15.25%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 09:45
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.74%EV -9.32%E -7.90%K -51.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -18.38%E -2.83%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 09:43
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.74%EV -9.32%E -7.90%K -51.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -18.38%E -2.83%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -9.95%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 09:43
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (4)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.58%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.29%0.5%2026-09-09 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.52%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.83%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.64%0.6%2026-09-09 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.52%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.83%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.64%0.6%2026-09-09 09:55
Matchbook◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.43%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%0.7%2026-09-09 09:50

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (2)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2利润率 ▲更新时间
GTbets🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%6.0%2026-09-09 09:30
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%6.1%2026-09-09 09:54