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England v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 86.27%1.16fair odd
EV -5.10%
Edge -4.64%
Kelly -51.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.13%86.27%86.27%87.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.1094.34%92.49%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 6.72%14.89fair odd
EV +14.17%
Edge +0.833%
Kelly +0.885%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.56%6.72%6.72%7.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0014.5315.0017.007.69%6.88%6.67%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.01%14.26fair odd
EV +5.20%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.371%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.23%7.01%7.01%8.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.8815.0015.009.09%7.20%6.67%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 86.27%; Pakistan (Visit): 6.72%; Draw: 7.01%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.89. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.86%EV -5.10%E -4.64%K -51.02%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +14.17%E +0.833%K +0.885%G +0.125%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -22.86%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-20 09:54
BetRivers🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:50
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:50
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:50
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-20 07:49
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.57%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 09:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.57%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +0.736%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 09:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.69%E -7.19%K -109.86%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.63%EV -5.98%E -0.427%K -0.460%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.63%EV -1.82%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 07:50
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -8.55%E -8.07%K -142.54%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV -5.98%E -0.427%K -0.460%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV -1.82%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-20 07:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.57%EV -6.83%E -6.32%K -85.34%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -12.70%E -0.977%K -1.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +5.20%E +0.346%K +0.371%G +0.019%7.0%2026-08-19 23:05
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.13%EV -5.96%E -5.47%K -66.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -12.70%E -0.977%K -1.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.84%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-20 09:54
Neds🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.13%EV -5.96%E -5.47%K -66.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -12.70%E -0.977%K -1.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.84%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-20 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.13%EV -5.96%E -5.47%K -66.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -12.70%E -0.977%K -1.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.84%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-20 09:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 89.05%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.25%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.70%0.3%2026-08-20 09:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.93%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.38%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69%0.4%2026-08-20 09:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.93%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.38%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.69%0.4%2026-08-20 09:54