Language:English
England v New Zealand
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 50.84%1.97fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -5.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%50.87%50.75%51.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.841.851.8856.50%54.27%54.05%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Zealand (Visit)
Prediction 37.21%2.69fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.959%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.93%37.12%37.42%38.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.502.6242.02%40.18%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 11.95%8.37fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.169%
Kelly -0.192%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 8.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.39%12.01%11.83%13.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.808.008.2514.29%12.82%12.50%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 50.84%; New Zealand (Visit): 37.21%; Draw: 11.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 8.25, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.
3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.34%EV -4.42%E -2.35%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.84%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.79%EV -13.35%E -1.84%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.34%EV -4.42%E -2.35%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.84%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.79%EV -13.35%E -1.84%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.64%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.64%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.64%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.64%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.64%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.64%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.91%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.67%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.42%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.91%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.67%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.42%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 21:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.91%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.67%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.42%EV -1.40%E -0.169%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.54%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.58%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.73%EV -7.72%E -3.11%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.58%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.73%EV -7.72%E -3.11%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.58%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.73%EV -7.72%E -3.11%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.01%EV -8.84%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -5.95%E -3.21%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -10.36%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-14 21:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.89%EV -6.96%E -3.81%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -2.51%E -0.959%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 07:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.98%EV -6.96%E -3.81%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -5.12%E -2.01%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -10.36%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-17 07:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.62%EV -6.96%E -3.81%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -8.84%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -6.96%E -3.81%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -10.36%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -6.96%E -3.81%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -16.34%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -6.96%E -3.81%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -16.34%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.47%E -4.11%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -3.26%E -1.25%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.33I 13.64%NM 12.74%EV -12.39%E -1.69%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-12 14:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -8.49%E -4.72%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -4.38%E -0.548%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-17 07:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.49%E -4.72%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -11.44%E -4.81%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -10.36%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-17 09:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.99%EV -9.00%E -5.03%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.51%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.50%EV -12.75%E -1.75%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.00%EV -10.01%E -5.66%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -16.34%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-14 21:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.16% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.17% | 0.2% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.16% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.17% | 0.2% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.03% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.13% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85% | 0.5% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.02% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10% | 0.8% | 2026-06-17 09:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 07:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15% | 5.3% | 2026-06-14 22:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 08:30 |