Language:English
England v New Zealand
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 52.30%1.91fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -5.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.20%52.36%52.27%53.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.801.8257.80%55.80%55.56%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Zealand (Visit)
Prediction 33.43%2.99fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.22%33.64%33.36%35.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.772.752.9038.02%36.08%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.27%7.01fair odd
EV +16.72%
Edge +2.04%
Kelly +2.33%
Growth +0.389%
assuming max odds 8.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.56%14.01%14.37%15.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.696.508.1816.67%14.96%15.38%12.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 52.30%; New Zealand (Visit): 33.43%; Draw: 14.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.72%.
2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.14%EV -6.90%E -3.88%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.30%EV -10.41%E -3.88%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.56%EV +16.72%E +2.04%K +2.33%G +0.389% | 5.7% | 2026-06-25 09:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.21%EV -3.72%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-25 09:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.03%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.03%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.03%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-25 08:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.03%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.03%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-25 08:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.03%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.84%EV -5.34%E -2.95%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.75%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.84%EV -5.34%E -2.95%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.75%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.119%E -0.017%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.00%EV -6.90%E -3.88%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -3.69%E -0.546%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.96%EV -8.47%E -4.84%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -3.69%E -0.546%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.70%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.05%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-25 09:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.82%EV -7.43%E -4.20%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.80%EV -4.72%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.38%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.40%EV -8.47%E -4.84%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -3.05%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.38%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-25 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.77%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.77%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.77%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.77%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.08%EV -9.52%E -5.50%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.79%EV -6.39%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.25%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.46%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.79%EV -3.72%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -8.68%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.46%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.79%EV -3.72%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -8.68%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-25 09:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.46%EV -5.86%E -3.25%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.79%EV -3.72%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -8.68%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.20%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -10.82%E -1.73%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.20%EV -4.81%E -2.64%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -10.82%E -1.73%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -8.47%E -4.84%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.81%EV -6.39%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.70%EV -10.82%E -1.73%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.12%EV -8.47%E -4.84%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.29%EV -8.40%E -3.07%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -10.82%E -1.73%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-25 09:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -9.52%E -5.50%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -14.39%E -2.40%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-25 09:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.73% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.77% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.50% | 0.1% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.95% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.19% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.86% | 0.2% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.53% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.83% | 0.4% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.53% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.83% | 0.4% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75% | 5.7% | 2026-06-25 09:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75% | 5.7% | 2026-06-25 08:50 |