Language:English
England v New Zealand
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 10.01%9.99fair odd
EV +10.10%
Edge +0.919%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.102%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.63%10.01%10.01%11.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.539.8811.0012.50%10.50%10.13%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Zealand (Visit)
Prediction 86.92%1.15fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -4.82%
Kelly -58.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.09%86.92%86.92%89.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.0997.09%94.04%93.90%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 3.07%32.57fair odd
EV +56.56%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.640%
assuming max odds 51.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.82%3.07%3.07%4.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0046.5651.0051.004.76%2.15%1.96%1.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 10.01%; New Zealand (Visit): 86.92%; Draw: 3.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 32.57. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 51.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +56.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +10.10%E +0.919%K +1.01%G +0.102% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.51%EV -7.86%E -7.42%K -131.07%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 05:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.65%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.65%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.65%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.65%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.65%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.65%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.75%EV -7.86%E -7.42%K -131.07%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 6.3% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +0.095%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.75%EV -7.86%E -7.42%K -131.07%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 6.3% | 2026-06-28 17:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -4.91%E -0.517%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.31%EV -7.86%E -7.42%K -131.07%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 6.8% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -19.92%E -2.49%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.60%EV -6.99%E -6.54%K -99.93%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.82%EV +56.56%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.640% | 7.9% | 2026-06-29 09:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -4.91%E -0.517%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.23%EV -8.73%E -8.32%K -174.67%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.01%EV +41.21%E +0.896%K +0.916%G +0.377% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 17:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -9.91%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 87.96%EV -10.47%E -10.17%K -349.06%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 1.97%EV +41.21%E +0.896%K +0.916%G +0.377% | 10.4% | 2026-06-28 17:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -19.92%E -2.49%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.00%EV -5.26%E -4.82%K -58.41%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV +25.86%E +0.631%K +0.647%G +0.167% | 6.7% | 2026-06-29 09:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.02%EV -14.92%E -1.76%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.70%EV -6.13%E -5.67%K -76.57%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV +25.86%E +0.631%K +0.647%G +0.167% | 6.8% | 2026-06-28 20:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.50%EV -2.41%E -0.247%K -0.275%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.24%EV -8.73%E -8.32%K -174.67%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.26%EV +25.86%E +0.631%K +0.647%G +0.167% | 7.9% | 2026-06-29 05:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.50%EV -2.41%E -0.247%K -0.275%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.24%EV -8.73%E -8.32%K -174.67%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.26%EV +25.86%E +0.631%K +0.647%G +0.167% | 7.9% | 2026-06-29 05:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -14.92%E -1.76%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.09%EV -7.86%E -7.42%K -131.07%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV -35.53%E -1.69%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-29 05:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.46% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.73% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.81% | 0.6% | 2026-06-29 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.46% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.73% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.81% | 0.6% | 2026-06-29 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.40% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.95% | 60.00I 1.67%NM 1.65% | 1.3% | 2026-06-29 09:50 |