The School of Odds
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Australia v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Australia (Local)

Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.301%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.99%27.48%27.61%28.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.403.403.6030.77%29.44%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 65.65%1.52fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -3.32%
Kelly -10.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.37%65.65%65.65%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.431.4571.43%70.07%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.88%14.54fair odd
EV +16.90%
Edge +0.994%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.47%6.88%6.74%8.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.6114.0017.009.09%7.35%7.14%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Australia (Local): 27.48%; Bangladesh (Visit): 65.65%; Draw: 6.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.37%EV -8.09%E -5.78%K -20.24%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.47%EV +16.90%E +0.994%K +1.06%G +0.178%7.6%2026-08-16 00:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.51%EV -5.47%E -3.80%K -12.43%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 08:04
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.51%EV -5.47%E -3.80%K -12.43%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 08:04
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.51%EV -5.47%E -3.80%K -12.43%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 12:10
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 08:04
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 08:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 08:04
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 08:04
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 08:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 08:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.40%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 08:04
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.72%EV -7.44%E -5.28%K -18.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -3.73%E -0.267%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 08:04
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -8.09%E -5.78%K -20.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -10.61%E -0.816%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 12:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -8.09%E -5.78%K -20.24%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -10.61%E -0.816%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 12:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.33%EV -6.13%E -4.28%K -14.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.61%E -0.816%K -0.884%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 08:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.75%EV -6.78%E -4.78%K -16.15%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -10.61%E -0.816%K -0.884%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 08:55
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.37%EV -4.81%E -3.32%K -10.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -24.36%E -2.21%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.37%EV -4.81%E -3.32%K -10.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -24.36%E -2.21%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 12:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.70%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.66%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.64%1.2%2026-08-16 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.60%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.35%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.05%1.6%2026-08-16 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.60%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.35%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.05%1.6%2026-08-16 00:25