Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa v Netherlands

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

94%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 93.54%1.07fair odd

EV -4.59%

Edge -4.50%

Kelly -229.59%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.72%93.78%93.45%95.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.021.02100.00%98.57%98.04%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Netherlands (Visit)

Prediction 6.46%15.47fair odd

EV +48.64%

Edge +2.11%

Kelly +2.21%

Growth +1.08%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

4.17%6.22%6.55%7.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

13.0015.5114.6323.007.69%6.45%6.84%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 93.54%; Netherlands (Visit): 6.46%. For Netherlands (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.47. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +48.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
888sport🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 95.83%EV -6.46%E -6.46%K +0.000%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +48.64%E +2.11%K +2.21%G +1.08%	4.3%	2026-06-25 17:20
William Hill🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 95.83%EV -6.46%E -6.46%K +0.000%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +48.64%E +2.11%K +2.21%G +1.08%	4.3%	2026-06-25 17:20
Coral🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +9.86%E +0.580%K +0.617%G +0.061%	3.9%	2026-06-25 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +9.86%E +0.580%K +0.617%G +0.061%	3.9%	2026-06-25 17:20
Sky Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +9.86%E +0.580%K +0.617%G +0.061%	3.9%	2026-06-25 17:20
Paddy Power🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +9.86%E +0.580%K +0.617%G +0.061%	3.9%	2026-06-25 17:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.53%E -5.47%K -552.72%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +9.86%E +0.580%K +0.617%G +0.061%	4.9%	2026-06-25 17:19
Bet Right🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.53%E -5.47%K -552.72%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +9.86%E +0.580%K +0.617%G +0.061%	4.9%	2026-06-23 23:20
SportsBet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.53%E -5.47%K -552.72%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -3.06%E -0.204%K -0.219%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-25 17:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.53%E -5.47%K -552.72%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -3.06%E -0.204%K -0.219%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 06:49
Betr (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -5.53%E -5.47%K -552.72%G +0.000%	14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -7.91%E -0.555%K -0.597%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-21 17:39
Betway🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -9.52%E -0.680%K -0.733%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-25 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-25 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 08:39
Grosvenor🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 08:39
Unibet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 08:40
Casumo🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 08:39
TABtouch🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 08:40
Virgin Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.59%E -4.50%K -229.59%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-22 08:39
Bet Victor🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.86%EV -6.46%E -6.46%K +0.000%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -15.99%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-25 17:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%	0.5%	2026-06-25 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%	0.5%	2026-06-25 17:20
Matchbook◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%	0.5%	2026-06-25 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.24%	36.00I 2.78%NM 2.76%	0.8%	2026-06-25 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.24%	36.00I 2.78%NM 2.76%	0.8%	2026-06-25 17:20