Language:English
New Zealand v Scotland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New Zealand (Local)
Prediction 80.28%1.25fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -9.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.57%80.19%80.42%81.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.191.181.2286.21%84.31%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Scotland (Visit)
Prediction 19.72%5.07fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +0.676%
Kelly +0.836%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.10%19.81%19.58%21.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.714.605.2522.73%21.23%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand (Local): 80.28%; Scotland (Visit): 19.72%. For Scotland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.88%E -5.93%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +3.55%E +0.676%K +0.836%G +0.030% | 5.3% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%EV -2.06%E -1.69%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%EV -2.06%E -1.69%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -4.34%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.32%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.27%E -2.02%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.27%E -2.02%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 08:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 08:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 08:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 08:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 08:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 08:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-23 09:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-23 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.21%E -3.00%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -13.21%E -3.00%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-23 09:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15% | 0.1% | 2026-06-23 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15% | 0.1% | 2026-06-23 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15% | 0.1% | 2026-06-23 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 0.8% | 2026-06-23 09:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.09% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.91% | 1.5% | 2026-06-23 09:20 |