Language:English
England v Scotland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 90.54%1.10fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -14.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.55%90.54%90.54%91.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.051.051.0997.09%95.48%95.24%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Scotland (Visit)
Prediction 9.46%10.57fair odd
EV +4.07%
Edge +0.370%
Kelly +0.407%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.56%9.46%9.46%10.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.0110.0011.0011.11%9.99%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 90.54%; Scotland (Visit): 9.46%. For Scotland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.57. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.03%E -3.80%K -67.15%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +4.07%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 3.4% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.03%E -3.80%K -67.15%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +4.07%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 3.4% | 2026-06-20 17:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.84%E -5.62%K -145.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +4.07%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.75%E -6.55%K -224.84%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +4.07%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 17:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.75%E -6.55%K -224.84%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +4.07%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 17:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.84%E -5.62%K -145.99%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -3.02%E -0.295%K -0.327%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 17:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%EV -1.31%E -1.20%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-06-20 17:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.84%E -5.62%K -145.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.84%E -5.62%K -145.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.84%E -5.62%K -145.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.84%E -5.62%K -145.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.39%E -0.539%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.12%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.12%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.12%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.12%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.12%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.12%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 17:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.93%E -4.70%K -98.69%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -14.85%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-20 17:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.75%E -6.55%K -224.84%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -14.85%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-20 17:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 17:20 |