Language:English
England v Australia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 33.73%2.97fair odd
EV -0.508%
Edge -0.172%
Kelly -0.260%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%33.60%33.65%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.862.882.9536.36%34.97%34.78%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Australia (Visit)
Prediction 66.27%1.51fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.69%
Kelly -8.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%66.40%66.35%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4573.53%70.81%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 33.73%; Australia (Visit): 66.27%. For England (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.508%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.508%E -0.172%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -1.52%E -0.520%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -6.55%E -4.65%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 14:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.19%E -0.757%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.19%E -0.757%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.19%E -0.757%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.19%E -0.757%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.87%E -0.996%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.21%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.21%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.22%E -5.15%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.88%E -1.36%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.57%E -3.17%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -4.89%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -3.90%E -2.69%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-03 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.57%E -1.99%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.89%E -4.15%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.57%E -1.99%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.89%E -4.15%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.57%E -1.99%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.89%E -4.15%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.25%E -2.64%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.57%E -3.17%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.25%E -2.64%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.57%E -3.17%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.25%E -2.64%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.57%E -3.17%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 05:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.25%E -2.64%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.57%E -3.17%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 05:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.25%E -2.64%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.57%E -3.17%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 06:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -7.25%E -2.64%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.87%E -7.26%K -27.41%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43% | 2.2% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
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