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Sri Lanka v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 39.12%2.56fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.884%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.22%39.18%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.402.5043.48%41.54%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 60.88%1.64fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.845%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%60.78%60.82%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.551.6266.67%64.42%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 39.12%; Pakistan (Visit): 60.88%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.21%E -0.884%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-28 13:13
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.884%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.884%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 13:15
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.884%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 13:15
FanDuel🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -3.77%E -1.53%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -6.24%E -4.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 13:15
SportsBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -3.77%E -1.53%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 13:15
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -7.46%E -4.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 13:10
GTbets🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -5.73%E -2.38%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.41%E -2.81%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.41%E -2.81%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 11:15
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.41%E -2.81%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:15
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:15
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:15
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:15
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.02%E -3.22%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:15
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 13:15
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 13:15
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.90%E -2.90%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.41%E -2.81%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -7.69%E -3.26%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -1.37%E -0.845%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-28 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%EV -7.69%E -3.26%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%EV -7.46%E -4.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 13:20
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -8.08%E -3.44%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -1.37%E -0.845%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 13:25
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.08%E -3.44%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 13:15
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.37%E -0.845%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 21:49
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -8.67%E -5.78%K -17.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 13:15
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -8.67%E -5.78%K -17.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28%0.1%2026-02-28 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-02-28 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%0.5%2026-02-28 13:25
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%0.5%2026-02-28 13:25
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%8.4%2026-02-28 13:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.62%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.22%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.6%2026-02-28 13:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.62%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.22%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.6%2026-02-28 13:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.62%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.22%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.6%2026-02-28 13:15