The School of Odds
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South Africa v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 57.58%1.74fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%58.04%57.29%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.651.651.7063.69%60.61%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 42.42%2.36fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%41.96%42.71%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.242.252.4345.87%44.66%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 57.58%; New Zealand (Visit): 42.42%. For New Zealand (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -8.44%E -5.31%K -14.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV +3.08%E +1.27%K +2.15%G +0.066%4.0%2026-03-04 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.60%E -6.11%K -16.84%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.955%E +0.401%K +0.692%G +0.007%5.7%2026-03-04 13:25
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.41%E -2.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-04 13:25
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 13:25
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.72%E -4.15%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.60%E -6.11%K -16.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.56%E -2.03%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 13:25
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.73%EV -5.57%E -3.39%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.27%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 13:24
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.11%E -1.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.84%E -2.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 13:25
GTbets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.41%E -2.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.99%E -3.02%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.68%E -3.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 13:25
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.41%E -2.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -7.53%E -3.45%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-03-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-03-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-03-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-03-04 13:25
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-03-04 13:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.08%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.5%2026-03-04 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.45%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-04 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.45%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-04 13:25