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England v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-02-24 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 59.13%1.69fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -6.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%59.22%59.18%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6265.36%63.22%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 40.87%2.45fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.797%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.39%40.78%40.82%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.4045.45%42.73%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 59.13%; Pakistan (Visit): 40.87%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -1.91%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.14%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-24 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-23 07:45
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.21%E -2.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.09%E -4.58%K -8.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-24 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-24 13:09
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-24 13:20
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 13:05
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 13:14
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -5.18%E -2.23%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:14
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 13:24
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 13:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 13:05
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 13:04
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -4.36%E -1.86%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-24 13:09
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-24 13:25
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-22 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-22 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-22 18:29
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.73%E -1.15%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-24 13:04
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.14%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 13:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.14%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 13:05
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.17%E -4.56%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-24 13:04
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 18:30
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 18:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 18:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.91%E -0.797%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 18:30
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.09%E -4.58%K -8.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-24 13:20
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.09%E -4.58%K -8.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-24 13:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.47%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.98%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.53%EV -4.36%E -1.86%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-24 13:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%0.3%2026-02-24 13:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%0.3%2026-02-24 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%0.3%2026-02-24 13:19
Matchbook◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%0.3%2026-02-24 13:14
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-02-24 13:24

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.08%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.6%2026-02-24 13:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.08%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.6%2026-02-24 13:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.08%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.6%2026-02-24 13:19