Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcestershire v Birmingham Bears

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcestershire (Local)

Prediction 51.81%1.93fair odd

EV -4.14%

Edge -2.24%

Kelly -4.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.93%52.03%52.00%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.801.801.8558.82%55.68%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Bears (Visit)

Prediction 48.19%2.08fair odd

EV +1.19%

Edge +0.566%

Kelly +1.08%

Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.17%47.97%48.00%49.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.901.992.002.1052.63%50.31%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcestershire (Local): 51.81%; Birmingham Bears (Visit): 48.19%. For Birmingham Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV +1.19%E +0.566%K +1.08%G +0.013%	3.2%	2026-05-29 16:09
Coral🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV +1.19%E +0.566%K +1.08%G +0.013%	3.2%	2026-05-29 16:09
Paddy Power🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -10.36%E -5.99%K -14.19%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +1.19%E +0.566%K +1.08%G +0.013%	5.4%	2026-05-29 16:10
SportsBet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV +0.225%E +0.108%K +0.209%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-29 16:10
Casumo🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:09
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
TABtouch🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
Unibet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
LeoVegas🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 16:09
BoyleSports🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 12:29
Betway🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -11.91%E -7.01%K -17.02%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -3.63%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-29 16:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.04%E -3.10%K -6.36%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 12:29
Marathon Bet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.77%E -4.36%K -9.96%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -7.00%E -3.63%K -7.53%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-29 16:10
TAB🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -4.14%E -2.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -7.48%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-29 16:19
Bet Victor🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.18%E -2.83%K -6.24%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.75%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 16:18
Pinnacle🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.18%E -2.83%K -6.24%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.75%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 10:59
Betr (AU)🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.18%E -2.83%K -6.24%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -8.45%E -4.45%K -9.39%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-29 16:19
Betsson🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.45%E -4.45%K -9.39%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-29 16:19
NordicBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.42%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.45%E -4.45%K -9.39%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-29 16:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%	2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%	0.4%	2026-05-29 16:20
Matchbook◎	1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%	2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%	0.5%	2026-05-29 16:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%	0.6%	2026-05-29 16:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%	0.6%	2026-05-29 16:20
Smarkets◎	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%	2.1%	2026-05-29 16:19