The School of Odds
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Somerset v Worcestershire

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 17:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Somerset (Local)

Prediction 66.00%1.52fair odd
EV +3.63%
Edge +2.31%
Kelly +6.36%
Growth +0.231%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%65.01%66.06%67.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5771.43%69.04%69.44%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcestershire (Visit)

Prediction 34.00%2.94fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.606%
Kelly -0.927%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.63%34.99%33.94%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.362.692.752.8942.37%37.18%36.36%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +3.63%E +2.31%K +6.36%G +0.231%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -19.09%E -8.02%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 13:49
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94%NM 60.51%EV +1.65%E +1.07%K +3.05%G +0.050%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%EV -19.77%E -8.38%K -14.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 16:45
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
Virgin Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
LiveScore Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.994%E -0.663%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:09
Marathon Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -2.31%E -1.56%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.56%EV -16.37%E -6.65%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 17:09
Unibet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.29%E -2.96%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 17:30
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.95%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 17:14
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.95%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.95%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 17:14
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.95%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 17:19
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.95%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 17:19
LeoVegas (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.95%E -3.44%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-12 17:30
NordicBet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.27%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.11%E -1.09%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 17:29
Betsson1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.27%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.11%E -1.09%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 17:30
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.27%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 17:30
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.27%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 17:30
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.27%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 17:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.27%E -4.42%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 17:29
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.37%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.63%EV -1.75%E -0.606%K -0.927%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.43%E -0.847%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 17:30
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.43%E -0.847%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 17:30
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 17:30
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 17:29
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 17:29
betano_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 17:29
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.59%E -5.42%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-07-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-07-12 17:25
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-07-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-07-12 17:30
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-07-12 17:30