Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Somerset v Northamptonshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

51%

49%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Somerset (Local)

Prediction 51.06%1.96fair odd

EV +3.14%

Edge +1.56%

Kelly +3.08%

Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.28%50.57%51.19%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.781.841.822.0256.18%54.48%54.95%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northamptonshire (Visit)

Prediction 48.94%2.04fair odd

EV -2.12%

Edge -1.06%

Kelly -2.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.37%49.43%48.81%53.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.941.942.0057.47%51.53%51.41%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV +3.14%E +1.56%K +3.08%G +0.097%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -14.85%E -8.53%K -20.06%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-10 17:25
888sport	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.47%E -1.29%K -2.72%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.53%E -3.42%K -7.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-08 23:59
betfred_uk	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.47%E -1.29%K -2.72%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.53%E -3.42%K -7.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-08 23:56
William Hill	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.47%E -1.29%K -2.72%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.53%E -3.42%K -7.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-09 00:00
BoyleSports	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.47%E -1.29%K -2.72%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.53%E -3.42%K -7.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-09 10:45
Betsson	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.54%E -2.99%K -6.51%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-10 17:04
NordicBet	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.54%E -2.99%K -6.51%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-10 17:04
TAB	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.54%E -2.99%K -6.51%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -6.04%E -3.15%K -6.56%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-10 17:09
SportsBet	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.56%E -3.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -3.59%E -1.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 17:24
Bet Victor	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.56%E -3.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.53%E -3.42%K -7.17%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-10 17:04
Betr (AU)	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -6.56%E -3.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.02%E -3.69%K -7.80%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-10 17:04
Virgin Bet	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-09 12:50
LiveScore Bet	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-09 12:50
Unibet	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-09 12:49
Unibet (SE)	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.06%E -2.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.06%E -2.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 12:50
Grosvenor	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.06%E -2.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 12:50
Casumo	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.06%E -2.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 12:49
TABtouch	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.06%E -2.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 12:49
ATG (SE)	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.07%E -3.88%K -8.62%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.06%E -2.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 12:50
Unibet (UK)	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -7.58%E -4.19%K -9.36%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-10 17:24
Coral	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.12%E -1.06%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.12%E -1.06%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:20
Sky Bet	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.12%E -1.06%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:08
Paddy Power	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.12%E -1.06%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.12%E -1.06%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:09
Neds	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -4.08%E -2.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -4.08%E -2.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:20
Betway	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.09%E -4.49%K -10.11%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.57%E -2.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-10 17:25
Marathon Bet	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -9.11%E -5.12%K -11.68%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -5.55%E -2.88%K -5.97%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-10 13:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%	2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%	1.1%	2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%	2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%	1.1%	2026-07-10 17:25
Matchbook	1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%	1.2%	2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66%	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%	1.6%	2026-07-10 17:25
Smarkets	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43%	2.6%	2026-07-10 17:25