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Somerset v Birmingham Bears
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Somerset (Local)
Prediction 56.46%1.77fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%56.69%56.49%60.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.651.7364.94%61.94%60.61%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Birmingham Bears (Visit)
Prediction 43.54%2.30fair odd
EV +3.64%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +2.63%
Growth +0.096%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.44%43.31%43.51%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.262.202.3848.78%44.22%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Somerset (Local): 56.46%; Birmingham Bears (Visit): 43.54%. For Birmingham Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096% | 6.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%EV -13.06%E -8.48%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%EV +1.02%E +0.441%K +0.775%G +0.008% | 8.0% | 2026-06-07 08:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 14:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 14:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 14:08 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.28%E -3.79%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.07%E -2.33%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-07 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.40%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.60%EV -5.94%E -2.75%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-06 15:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.15%E -3.07%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.38%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-07 14:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.85%E -4.15%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.38%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-06 23:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.03%E -2.37%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.56%E -4.07%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-07 14:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.85%E -4.15%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.56%E -4.07%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-07 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -2.33%E -1.35%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -10.73%E -5.24%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-07 14:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.1% | 2026-06-07 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-06-07 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59% | 1.5% | 2026-06-07 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59% | 1.5% | 2026-06-07 14:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42% | 5.2% | 2026-06-07 14:20 |