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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Somerset v Birmingham Bears

开赛时间： 2026-06-07 14:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

23 家博彩公司 (6 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Somerset (主队)

预测 56.46%1.77公平赔率
EV -2.33%
优势 -1.35%
Kelly -3.19%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.73

博彩公司预测分布
54.23%56.69%56.49%60.56%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.541.611.651.7364.94%61.94%60.61%57.80%最小值均值中位数最大值

Birmingham Bears (客队)

预测 43.54%2.30公平赔率
EV +3.64%
优势 +1.53%
Kelly +2.63%
增长率 +0.096%

假设最高赔率为 2.38

博彩公司预测分布
39.44%43.31%43.51%45.77%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.052.262.202.3848.78%44.22%45.45%42.02%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Somerset (主队)：56.46%；Birmingham Bears (客队)：43.54%。 对于“Birmingham Bears (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.30。 当时有11家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.38，对应+3.64%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (23 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼利润率更新时间
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -12.49%E -8.06%K -22.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +3.64%E +1.53%K +2.63%G +0.096%6.5%2026-06-06 22:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%EV -13.06%E -8.48%K -24.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%EV +1.02%E +0.441%K +0.775%G +0.008%8.0%2026-06-07 08:00
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:09
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:09
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:08
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.28%E -3.79%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.07%E -2.33%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-07 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.40%EV -5.72%E -3.42%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.60%EV -5.94%E -2.75%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-06 15:20
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.15%E -3.07%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.38%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-07 14:08
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.85%E -4.15%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.38%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-06 23:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.03%E -2.37%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.56%E -4.07%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-07 14:19
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.85%E -4.15%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.56%E -4.07%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-07 14:09
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -2.33%E -1.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -10.73%E -5.24%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-07 14:19
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.1%2026-06-07 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-06-07 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-06-07 14:20
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-06-07 14:20
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%5.2%2026-06-07 14:20