Nottinghamshire v Leicestershire

2026-07-10 17:30 — T20 Blast

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Nottinghamshire (Local)

Prediction 61.95%1.61fair odd

EV -5.22%

Edge -3.41%

Kelly -9.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.54%62.60%62.03%66.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.401.511.521.53MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

61.54%1.625Min

66.27%1.509Max

62.60%1.597Mean

62.03%1.612Median

61.95%1.614IQM

62.56%1.598Margin-weighted

Leicestershire (Visit)

Prediction 38.05%2.63fair odd

EV +4.65%

Edge +1.69%

Kelly +2.65%

Growth +0.123%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.73%37.40%37.97%38.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.402.492.502.75MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

33.73%2.964Min

38.46%2.600Max

37.40%2.674Mean

37.97%2.634Median

38.05%2.628IQM

37.44%2.671Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Nottinghamshire (Local)	Leicestershire (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	1.40I 71.43% NM 66.27%EV -13.27% E -9.48% K -33.19% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 33.73%EV +4.65% E +1.69% K +2.65% G +0.123%	7.8%	2026-07-08 23:40
SportsBet	1.50I 66.67% NM 62.78%EV -7.08% E -4.72% K -14.16% G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53% NM 37.22%EV -3.73% E -1.47% K -2.44% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-08 20:49
Coral	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 20:50
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 20:49
Paddy Power	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 20:49
Sky Bet	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 20:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 20:55
888sport	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 23:30
betfred_uk	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 23:29
William Hill	1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -5.22% E -3.41% K -9.85% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 00:00
NordicBet	1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%EV -5.84% E -3.84% K -11.23% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 23:28
Betsson	1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%EV -5.84% E -3.84% K -11.23% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 23:30
TAB	1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%EV -5.84% E -3.84% K -11.23% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%EV -4.87% E -1.95% K -3.24% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 23:40
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.52I 65.79% NM 61.71%EV -5.84% E -3.84% K -11.23% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 38.29%EV -6.77% E -2.76% K -4.67% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-08 20:49
Neds	1.52I 65.79% NM 61.71%EV -5.84% E -3.84% K -11.23% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 38.29%EV -6.77% E -2.76% K -4.67% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-08 20:49
Unibet (UK)	1.50I 66.67% NM 62.03%EV -7.08% E -4.72% K -14.16% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 37.97%EV -6.77% E -2.76% K -4.67% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-08 20:49
Betr (AU)	1.50I 66.67% NM 62.03%EV -7.08% E -4.72% K -14.16% G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82% NM 37.97%EV -6.77% E -2.76% K -4.67% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-08 23:30
Bet Victor	1.50I 66.67% NM 61.54%EV -7.08% E -4.72% K -14.16% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.46%EV -8.67% E -3.61% K -6.19% G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-08 20:50
Betway	1.50I 66.67% NM 61.54%EV -7.08% E -4.72% K -14.16% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 38.46%EV -8.67% E -3.61% K -6.19% G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-08 21:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Nottinghamshire (Local)	Leicestershire (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets	1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%	2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%	5.8%	2026-07-08 20:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.25I 80.00% NM 50.00%	1.25I 80.00% NM 50.00%	60.0%	2026-07-08 20:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.25I 80.00% NM 50.00%	1.25I 80.00% NM 50.00%	60.0%	2026-07-08 20:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.25I 80.00% NM 50.00%	1.25I 80.00% NM 50.00%	60.0%	2026-07-08 20:50