The School of Odds

Leicestershire v Durham

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Leicestershire (Local)

Prediction 45.40%2.20fair odd
EV -0.117%
Edge -0.053%
Kelly -0.097%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.52%45.37%47.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.102.2051.28%48.36%47.62%45.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Durham (Visit)

Prediction 54.60%1.83fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.48%54.63%56.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.711.8059.88%57.70%58.48%55.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.117%E -0.053%K -0.097%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.82%E -5.28%K -13.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 14:30
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.39%E -1.11%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 19:10
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.39%E -1.11%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.27%E -4.93%K -12.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 17:15
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.54%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:15
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.54%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:15
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.09%E -3.54%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:15
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.09%E -3.54%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:15
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 17:15
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:24
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:24
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:25
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:25
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:24
Grosvenor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:24
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:24
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.66%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 08:25
Pinnacle2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -6.02%E -2.91%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 17:45
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.93%E -3.38%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.54%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-08 17:14
SportsBet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -7.83%E -3.86%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -2.81%E -1.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:20
Marathon Bet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -7.83%E -3.86%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -7.18%E -4.23%K -10.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 17:20
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:19
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:20
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:20
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.72%E -0.957%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 17:20
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -9.20%E -4.60%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -2.81%E -1.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 17:20
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.47%E -5.88%K -12.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.45%E -2.54%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-08 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-07-08 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-07-08 17:25
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-07-08 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%0.9%2026-07-08 17:25
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%1.9%2026-07-08 17:25