The School of Odds

Lancashire v Derbyshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-06 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Lancashire (Local)

Prediction 62.71%1.59fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -7.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.13%63.00%62.50%65.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.501.5369%66%67%65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Derbyshire (Visit)

Prediction 37.29%2.68fair odd
EV +2.54%
Edge +0.924%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%37.00%37.50%38.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.392.522.502.7542%40%40%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.54%E +0.924%K +1.45%G +0.037%5.8%2026-07-06 17:19
Betsson1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.19%E -4.85%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.19%E -0.449%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 17:25
NordicBet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.19%E -4.85%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.19%E -0.449%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 17:25
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.31%E -0.881%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 17:25
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.05%E -1.17%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 17:20
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.29%E -2.08%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 17:15
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 17:15
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 17:15
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 17:15
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 22:45
Unibet (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-06 17:15
TAB1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-03 22:29
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 17:20
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 17:10
LiveScore Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:30
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:29
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:29
Virgin Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:29
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:30
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:30
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:30
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 11:29
Marathon Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -7.19%E -4.85%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.56%EV -8.27%E -3.36%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 17:10
Neds1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.65%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 17:14
Ladbrokes (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.65%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 17:14
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-06 17:20
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 61.13%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.87%EV -10.88%E -4.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-07-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-07-06 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-07-06 17:25
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-07-06 17:25
Smarkets1.54I 64.94%NM 64.19%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.81%1.2%2026-07-06 17:25